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2026 Iranian Supreme Leader election

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2026 Iranian Supreme Leader election
← 1989
2026
88 members of the Assembly of Experts
59 votes needed to win
Last Supreme Leader before election

Ali Khamenei

 Elected Supreme Leader

TBD

An election for the third supreme leader of Iran is planned to take place at an unspecified date in 2026, following the assassination of Ali Khamenei on 28 February 2026 during the Israeli–United States strikes on Iran.

Before Khamenei's death, no person had been officially declared as the heir to Khamenei nor as a nominee, though various sources such as Reuters and BBC News have reported on potential candidates.[1][2] In 2014, it was reported that the succession of Khamenei is deemed to have been decided but not disclosed publicly.[1][3] Prior to his death, Khamenei had not discussed his replacement.[4][5]

Constitutionally, the Assembly of Experts is tasked to select the next leader, a council that examines possible candidates in secrecy while advising the current leader.[6][7] Its sixth and current session began after it was elected in 2024 and is scheduled to sit until 2032. Current potential candidates to succeed Khamenei include his son Mojtaba, his aides Asghar Hijazi, Ali Larijani, Sadiq Larijani, Alireza Arafi, Mohammad-Mahdi Mirbagheri, and Mohsen Araki, as well as Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Islamic Republic's founder Ruhollah Khomeini. Former president Ebrahim Raisi was often mentioned in the frontrunners for the position prior to his death in a helicopter crash in May 2024.[8][9][10][11][12]

On 3 March, Iranian media reported that the Assembly of Experts' office in Qom was struck, reportedly during a session convened for electoral purposes.[13]

Background

Alleged plans and official plan

In December 2015, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said a committee in the Assembly of Experts was "examining potential candidates to be the next Supreme Leader". He also said the Assembly would be open to choosing "a council of leaders if needed" instead of a single leader.[1] During his presidency, Hassan Rouhani was often considered by some as a potential successor.[3] Ahmad Khatami told press in 2016 that a committee made up of three Assembly members had given three names to the supreme leader "to seek his verdict", but later remarked what he said was "hypothetical" and blamed media for misreporting his words.[14]

In June 2019, Mohsen Araki commented that the committee had drafted a "top secret list of prospective supreme leaders" and would present three names to the Assembly "when it is necessary."[14] Hashem Hashemzadeh Herisi confirmed that such a committee exists, adding that the names on the list would not be disclosed. He also stated that the decisions made by the committee would not be fateful because the next leader must be voted by a majority of all members in the Assembly.[14] Earlier in February 2019, Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari had categorically dismissed allegations that Ebrahim Raisi and Ahmad Khatami were considered as candidates for the next leader by the Assembly, stating that the question "had never been debated at the Assembly."[15]

As of 2023, the Assembly of Experts was discussing a potential program to reestablish the post of Vice Supreme Leader, which was last held by Hussein-Ali Montazeri from 1985 to 1989.[16] In November 2024, government leaker Abbas Palizdar said that Mojtaba Khamenei had quit the seminary to succeed his father.[17] It was later reported by Al Arabiya that according to the Assembly, three people had been nominated to replace Khamenei.[18] On 16 November it was reported by Israeli newspaper Ynet that Khamenei picked his son Mojtaba,[19] which was later denied by the pro-government Tehran Times newspaper in January 2025.[20] One of the Assembly members said that a successor had already been chosen but declined to disclose his identity for safety reasons.[21]

Shortly before the Twelve-Day War between Iran and Israel in 2025, Khamenei requested the Assembly to prepare for the selection of his successor.[22] Following the United States strikes on Iranian nuclear sites during the war, The New York Times reported that Khamenei picked three senior clerics for his successorship in case of his assassination.[23] During the 2026 Israeli-United States airstrikes, the New York Times revealed that the three clerics Khamenei nominated were Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, Asghar Hijazi, and Hassan Khomeini.[24]

Pre-election analysis

In 2023, Israeli military intelligence had assessed President Ebrahim Raisi would succeed Khamenei.[25] John Bolton argued the regime would be vulnerable in the event of Khamenei's death.[26] In the aftermath of Raisi's death, Mojtaba Khamenei's status as a potential successor to his father became more plausible, although Ali Khamenei had reportedly opposed this.[27][28][29][30] The Middle East Institute opined that Khamenei appointing his own son as successor would cause conflict within the Iranian political and religious leadership.[31]

Following the 2024 election, 92-year-old Ayatollah Mohammad-Ali Movahedi Kermani became the new chairman of the Assembly of Experts.[32][33] Ruhollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan Khomeini is also considered a possible successor, however, Iran International asserted he is unlikely due to his "exclusion from the regime's upper echelon" and that he was "sidelined after being barred from running for the Assembly of Experts" in 2016.[34]

Twelve-Day War (2025)

Amid the Twelve-Day War between Iran and Israel, unverified reports from Western and opposition sources claimed Khamenei suffered a mental breakdown due to stress from Israeli assassinations of Iranian officials, allegedly leading to his removal from key decisions by military commanders who withheld war realities from him.[35][36][37] In November 2025, President Masoud Pezeshkian warned in parliamentary remarks that harm to Khamenei could cause internal factions to turn on each other, leading to regime collapse without need for external intervention.[38][39]

In the war, Khamenei was reportedly replaced by Majlis speaker commander Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf according to Minister of Islamic Culture and Guidance and Tourism, while according to himself Khamenei was the one personally in charge of war decision making.[40][41][42] According to sources, Khamenei was not reachable during the war and Ali Larijani former Majlis speaker who he newly appointed head of Supreme National Security Council took his responsibilities. Former president Hassan Rouhani was reportedly also "trying his chance" to replace Khamenei according to TRT. Post-war Khamenei rarely made any public appearance.[43][44][45][46][47] According to The National Interest, an IRGC military junta had already replaced Khamenei.[48]

  • Larijani
    Larijani
  • Ghalibaf
    Ghalibaf
  • Rouhani
    Rouhani

2026 crisis and assassination of Khamenei

In an interview with Politico discussing the 2025–2026 Iranian protests, US president Donald Trump called Ali Khamenei a "sick man" and called for new leadership in Iran. The Iranian government then threatened to declare an Islamic jihad against the Western world in the event of his death.[49][50][51][52] Ali Larijani surpassed Ali Khamenei as designated sitting secretary of SNSC to be acting supreme leader because of the highly likely event of decapitation strikes.[53]

On 28 February 2026, Khamenei was assassinated in a series of airstrikes conducted by Israel and the United States; his death was confirmed by the Iranian Supreme National Security Council and by state media the following day.[54][55][56]

After Khamenei's death, a leadership crisis began, with multiple potential candidates being named.[57] Prior to his death, Khamenei had not discussed his replacement and had said the selection must be made without shame or regard for expediency, rather based on the three principles of "truth, the need of the country and God".[4][5]

Trump has claimed that "the attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates. It’s not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."[58][59]

Interim Leadership Council

Main article: Interim Leadership Council

After the death of Khamenei, following Article 111 of the Islamic Republic constitution,[60] an Interim Leadership Council took over Khamenei's role, pending election of a new Supreme Leader. The Interim Leadership Council, as established early on 1 March 2026, then consisted of Alireza Arafi of the Guardian Council, Chief Justice of Iran Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and President of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian.[61][62] Later that day, however, the Foreign Minister of Iran Abbas Araghchi described a "group of three" by office, not including the Speaker of the Parliament. Furthermore, he assumed that the process would take "one or two days". [63]

It was reported by the BBC that Alireza Arafi was nominated as Interim Supreme Leader on 28 February before any successor was elected.[64] Ghalibaf and Larijani remained putative contenders, however,[65] not least because they (amongst others),[66] have long been seen as more or less likely prospects from the upper echelons of the Islamic Republic[67] by academics and analysts.[68][69][70]

On 3 March, Iranian media reported that US and Israeli strikes targeted the Assembly of Experts office in the city of Qom. Zed TV, a telegram channel, claimed a meeting of the Assembly, which convened to discuss selecting the next supreme leader, had been targeted.[13]

Electoral system

The Supreme Leader of Iran is selected by members of the Assembly of Experts to serve a life tenure. According to Article 111 of Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, if the incumbent Supreme Leader dies in office or is dismissed, the Assembly of Experts should immediately hold a session and appoint a successor. A Provisional Leadership Council consisting of the President, the Chief Justice, and one of the clerics of the Guardian Council who is selected by the Expediency Discernment Council, is mandated to carry out the interim duties of the supreme leader until a permanent successor is selected.[71]

It has been reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps wants to appoint a successor quickly, skipping the formal election process involving the Assembly of Experts.[72]

Potential candidates

Candidate Born Curriculum vitae Reference

Alireza Arafi 		1959
(age 66–67)
Meybod, Iran
[73]

Ali Larijani 		3 June 1958
(age 67)
Najaf, Iraq
[74][75][76][77]

Hassan Khomeini 		23 July 1972
(age 53)
Qom, Iran
[78]

Mahdi Mirbagheri 		1961
(age 64–65)
Qom, Iran
[79][80][81][69]

Mojtaba Khamenei 		8 September 1969
(age 56)
Mashhad, Iran 		[82]

Sadiq Larijani 		12 March 1963
(age 62)
Najaf, Iraq 		[83]

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Further reading

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