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2008 United States Senate election in Oregon

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2008 United States Senate election in Oregon
← 2002
November 4, 2008
2014 →
 
Nominee Jeff Merkley Gordon Smith David Brownlow
Party Democratic Republican Constitution
Popular vote 864,392 805,159 92,565
Percentage 48.90% 45.55% 5.24%
Merkley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Smith:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Gordon Smith
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jeff Merkley
Democratic

The 2008 United States Senate election in Oregon was held on November 4, 2008, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Oregon. Democratic speaker of the house Jeff Merkley defeated Republican two-term incumbent Gordon Smith and David Brownlow of the Constitution Party of Oregon. Merkley won by a narrow margin, with Smith not conceding until two days after the election.[1] Merkley became the first Democrat to win this seat since 1960, and since Smith was the only Republican holding statewide office in Oregon at the time, this was the first time since 1860 that no Republicans won or held statewide office in Oregon. Merkley's inauguration marked the first time since 1967 that Democrats held both of Oregon's United States Senate seats.

This was one of the most competitive races during the 2008 United States Senate elections,[2] and the race was the most expensive in Oregon history. As of late October 2008, advertising related to the race exceeded $27 million, outstripping the $15 million spent on a 2007 tobacco tax ballot measure and the $14.7 million spent in the gubernatorial election of 2006.[3] Constitution Party candidate David Brownlow was seen by some as a spoiler, as his number of votes was more than the margin between Merkley and Smith. However, Brownlow drew votes away from opponents of the Iraq War, which Smith supported.[4] As of 2026, this is the last Oregon U.S. Senate race that was decided by a single-digit margin.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Gordon Smith (incumbent) 296,330 85.41%
Republican Gordon Leitch 48,560 14.00%
Republican Write-ins 2,068 0.69%
Total votes 309,943 100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Steve Novick, attorney
  • Candy Neville, real estate broker
  • Roger Obrist, construction worker
  • Pavel Goberman, perennial candidate
  • David Loera, doctor

Declined

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

In the Democratic primary, although Democrats held all statewide offices in Oregon, there was no clear Democratic challenger; former Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber indicated early on that he was not interested. In January 2007, while the campaign was still in its infancy, Portland lawyer and political activist Steve Novick wrote a lengthy critique of Gordon Smith's record in the Portland Willamette Week.[10] The article outlined a strategy to beat Smith, who Novick argued was actually more vulnerable than appeared. On April 18, 2007, Novick formally announced his candidacy for Senate.[11]

By the end of May, both Congressmen Earl Blumenauer and Peter DeFazio had announced they were not interested in entering the race, depleting what was considered by many the "first-tier" list of candidates for the position leaving Democrats searching for more candidates.[12] With no high-profile Democrats in the race, it was believed by that the most likely candidates would come from the state legislature. Since the legislature was still in session at the time it was considered unlikely that any prominent lawmakers would jump into the race until the end of June or later. Of those, Jeff Merkley, then Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives was considered to be the most likely to challenge Smith due to rumors that he had been in talks with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).[12]

The rumors that Merkley was being courted by the DSCC were confirmed when it was reported that he had travelled to the East Coast to discuss a possible run at the invitation of Senator Charles Schumer of New York, who as chairman of the DSCC was in charge of recruiting possible challengers to take on Smith.[13] Around the same time, State Senator Alan Bates from Jackson County was reported to be contemplating running for the Democratic nomination. Eventually Bates decided against running[14] and on August 1, 2007, Merkley filed papers, officially entering the race.[15]

Merkley and Novick gave back-to-back speeches at the yearly summit of the Democratic Party of Oregon in Sunriver. There Novick threw a political jab, challenging Merkley's statements that he had been an opponent of the war from the start by pointing to his support of a Republican-drafted non-binding resolution in 2003, two days after the invasion began, that praised President Bush for the invasion of Iraq and the efforts of the troops and prayed for their safety. The critique drew noticeably negative reactions from the crowd and Merkley won a straw poll at the summit, 103 to 50 for Novick.[16]

Merkley went on to dismiss the criticism, pointing out that Legislative resolutions carry no force of law and are only statements of principle, that a legislator could freely pick and choose which parts of the resolution to support, and that he made clear that "you stand up and clarify what parts you're supporting and what parts you're opposed to and I did that more clearly than any member on the floor of the House."[16]

By the end of November 2007, six Democratic candidates had filed papers to run for the seat: Novick, Merkley, real estate agent Candy Neville of Eugene, retired mental health counselor David Loera of Salem, retired construction worker Roger Obrist of Damascus, and perennial candidate Pavel Goberman of Beaverton.[17] Some pointed discussions ensued among the candidates over a debate schedule and formats.[17]

On January 22, 2008, four of the Democratic candidates had their first debate in Pendleton, Oregon hosted by the East Oregonian newspaper.

Merkley went on to defeat Novick and the four other candidates in the Democratic primary on May 20, 2008.[18]

Results

[edit]
Results by county, Democratic primary:
Jeff Merkley
  •   50–55%
      45–50%
      40–45%
      35–40%
      30–35%
Steve Novick
  •   50–55%
      45–50%
      40–45%
Democratic primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jeff Merkley 246,482 44.82%
Democratic Steve Novick 230,889 41.98%
Democratic Candy Neville 38,367 6.98%
Democratic Roger S. Obrist 12,647 2.30%
Democratic Pavel Goberman 12,056 2.19%
Democratic David Loera 6,127 1.11%
Democratic Write-ins 3,398 0.62%
Total votes 549,966 100.00%

Constitution primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Tossup October 23, 2008
CQ Politics[21] Tossup October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[22] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics[23] Tossup October 30, 2008

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2008
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Gordon Smith (R) $13,609,610 $13,941,337 $75,663
Jeff Merkley (D) $6,512,231 $6,501,315 $11,226
Source: Federal Election Commission[24]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Gordon
Smith (R) 		Jeff
Merkley (D) 		Other/Undecided
[a] 		Margin
RealClearPolitics[25] October 23 – October 30, 2008 October 30, 2008 42.5% 47.8% 9.7% Merkley +5.3%
Rasmussen Reports[26] February 13 – October 30, 2008 October 30, 2008 46.0% 47.0% 7.0% Merkley +1.0%
Average 44.3% 47.4% 8.3% Merkley +3.1%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gordon
Smith (R) 		Jeff
Merkley (D) 		Dave
Brownlow (C) 		Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[26] October 30, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 49% – 4%[c] 1%
Public Policy Polling (D)[27] October 28–30, 2008 1,424 (LV) ± 2.6% 43% 51% 4% – 2%
Research 2000[28] October 27–29, 2008 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 48% – 5% 5%
SurveyUSA[29][A] October 25–26, 2008 672 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 49% 5% – 4%
Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc.[30] October 23–25, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 45% 3% – 12%
Riley Research & Association[31] October 10–20, 2008 499 (RV) ± 4.4% 35% 36% 4% – 25%
Research 2000[32] October 14–15, 2008 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 47% – 6% 6%
Rasmussen Reports[26] October 14, 2008 – – 47% 47% – – 6%
SurveyUSA[33][B] October 11–12, 2008 584 (LV) ± 4.1% 41% 46% 7% – 6%
Research 2000[34] September 22–24, 2008 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 45% – 6% 9%
SurveyUSA[35][C] September 22–23, 2008 708 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 44% 8% – 6%
Rasmussen Reports[36] September 15, 2008 700 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 45% – – 9%
Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc.[37][D] September 11–14, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 39% – – 19%
Benenson Strategy Group (D)[38][E] September 7–9, 2008 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 41% 43% 6% – 10%
Benenson Strategy Group (D)[39][38][E] August 15, 2008 – (LV) – 47% 38% 4% – 11%
Rasmussen Reports[40] August 7, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 47% 39% – 5% 9%
50%[d] 44% – 1% 6%
SurveyUSA[41][F] August 2–4, 2008 629 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 37% 8% – 6%
Rasmussen Reports[42] July 15, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 41% 43% – 4% 11%
Benenson Strategy Group (D)[39][38][E] June 15, 2008 – (LV) – 48% 38% 4% – 9%
Rasmussen Reports[43] June 11, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 38% – 8% 7%
U.S. Chamber of Commerce (R)[39][44] May 27–29, 2008 300 (LV) – 38% 34% – 11%[e] 16%
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[45] May 12–16, 2008 800 (LV) – 45% 42% – – 14%
Rasmussen Reports[46] May 7, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 42% – 4% 9%
Rasmussen Reports[26] March 25, 2008 500 (LV)[f] – 47% 34% – – 19%
Rasmussen Reports[47] February 13, 2008 500 (LV) – 48% 30% – – 22%
Riley Research Associates[48] November 30–December 12, 2007 401 (LV) ± 4.9% 39% 12% – 14%[g] 35%
SurveyUSA[49][G] October 24–30, 2007 641 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% – – 13%
Riley Research & Associates[50] August 10–15, 2007 406 (LV) ± 4.9% 38% 19% – 7%[h] 36%
Hypothetical polling

Gordon Smith vs. Peter DeFazio

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Gordon
Smith (R) 		Peter
DeFazio (D) 		Undecided
Grove Insight (D)[51][H] February 2007 – (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 38% 20%

Gordon Smith vs. Steve Novick

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Gordon
Smith (R) 		Steve
Novick (D) 		Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[46] May 7, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 41% 4% 9%
Rasmussen Reports[47] February 13, 2008 500 (LV) – 48% 35% – 22%
SurveyUSA[49][I] October 24–30, 2007 641 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 39% – 16%
Lake Research Partners (D)[39][52][J] July 7–11, 2007 500 (LV) – 50% 27% – 23%

Results

[edit]
2008 United States Senate election in Oregon[53]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jeff Merkley 864,392 48.90% +9.30%
Republican Gordon Smith (incumbent) 805,159 45.55% −10.66%
Constitution David Brownlow 92,565 5.24% +3.52%
Write-in 5,388 0.30% +0.19%
Total votes 1,767,504 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

By county

[edit]
Merkley supporters at a campaign rally
Brownlow's performance by county:
List
  •   8-9%
      7-8%
      6-7%
      5-6%
      4-5%
      3-4%
County[53] Jeff Merkley
Democratic 		Gordon Smith
Republican 		David Brownlow
Constitution 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # % # %
Baker 2,203 25.82% 5,662 66.37% 652 7.64% 14 0.16% -3,459 -40.55% 8,531
Benton 24,911 55.89% 17,933 40.23% 1,567 3.52% 163 0.37% 6,978 15.66% 44,574
Clackamas 83,558 45.00% 92,780 49.97% 8,851 4.77% 479 0.26% -9,222 -4.97% 185,668
Clatsop 8,795 49.28% 7,939 44.48% 1,062 5.95% 52 0.29% 865 4.80% 17,848
Columbia 11,166 46.46% 10,679 44.44% 2,091 8.70% 95 0.40% 487 2.02% 24,031
Coos 12,621 42.29% 14,838 49.72% 2,319 7.77% 67 0.22% -2,217 -7.43% 29,845
Crook 2,735 27.33% 6,436 64.31% 804 8.03% 32 0.32% -3701 -36.98% 10,007
Curry 4,410 36.88% 6,679 55.86% 843 7.05% 25 0.21% -2,269 -18.98% 11,957
Deschutes 31,024 40.59% 41,108 53.78% 4,113 5.38% 197 0.26% -10,084 -13.19% 76,442
Douglas 17,387 34.02% 29,969 58.63% 3,626 7.09% 130 0.25% -12,582 -24.61% 51,112
Gilliam 302 27.94% 699 64.66% 78 7.22% 2 0.19% -397 -36.72% 1,081
Grant 748 19.65% 2,821 74.12% 232 6.10% 5 0.13% -2,073 -54.47% 3,806
Harney 755 21.11% 2,574 71.98% 242 6.77% 5 0.14% -1,819 -50.87% 3,576
Hood River 5,045 52.90% 4,070 42.68% 423 4.23% 18 0.19% 975 10.22% 9,536
Jackson 41,828 42.94% 49,225 50.53% 6,071 6.23% 296 0.30% -7,397 -7.59% 97,420
Jefferson 2,705 33.48% 4,788 59.26% 564 6.98% 22 0.27% -2083 -25.78% 8,079
Josephine 14,153 34.97% 22,790 56.30% 3,409 8.42% 125 0.31% -8,637 -21.33% 40,477
Klamath 7,005 24.58% 19,241 67.51% 2,152 7.55% 104 0.36% -12,236 -42.93% 28,502
Lake 2,697 74.79% 668 18.52% 234 6.49% 7 0.19% -2,029 -56.27% 3,606
Lane 103,631 58.09% 66,936 37.52% 7,393 4.14% 449 0.25% 36,695 20.57% 178,409
Lincoln 12,097 52.13% 9,464 40.78% 1,598 6.89% 47 0.20% 2,633 11.35% 23,206
Linn 18,403 36.94% 27,047 54.29% 4,180 8.39% 192 0.39% -8,644 -17.35% 49,822
Malheur 2,218 22.08% 7,355 73.21% 469 4.67% 5 0.05% -5,137 -51.13% 10,047
Marion 49,626 41.02% 62,560 51.71% 8,359 6.91% 441 0.36% -12,934 -10.69% 120,098
Morrow 988 24.63% 2,751 68.57% 266 6.63% 7 0.17% -1,763 -43.94% 4,012
Multnomah 242,518 68.87% 95,950 27.25% 12,410 3.52% 1,284 0.36% 146,568 41.62% 352,162
Polk 13,906 39.77% 18,718 53.53% 2,195 6.28% 147 0.42% -4,812 -13.76% 34,966
Sherman 277 27.08% 685 66.96% 54 5.28% 7 0.68% -408 -39.88% 1,023
Tillamook 5,540 42.89% 6,516 50.44% 826 6.39% 36 0.28% -976 -7.55% 12,918
Umatilla 5,948 23.80% 17,933 71.14% 1,068 4.27% 47 0.19% -11,985 -47.34% 24,996
Union 3,329 27.15% 8,230 67.13% 676 5.51% 25 0.20% -4,901 -39.98% 12,260
Wallowa 940 21.62% 3,226 74.20% 177 4.07% 5 0.11% -2,286 -52.58% 4,348
Wasco 4,586 41.36% 5,762 51.96% 718 6.47% 23 0.21% -1,176 -10.60% 11,089
Washington 111,367 48.84% 106,114 46.53% 9,886 4.34% 678 0,30% 5,253 2.31% 228,045
Wheeler 212 26.80% 509 64.35% 68 8.60% 2 0.25% -297 -37.55% 701
Yamhill 16,787 39.66% 22,475 53.10% 2,909 6.87% 155 0.37% -5,688 -13.44% 42,326
Totals 864,392 48.90% 805,159 45.55% 92,565 5.24% 5,388 0.30% 59233 3.35% 1,767,504
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%.
  4. ^ Leaners included
  5. ^ Frohnmayer with 11%
  6. ^ [25]
  7. ^ Independent John Frohnmayer with 14%
  8. ^ Independent John Frohnmayer with 7%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by KATU-TV Portland
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by KATU-TV Portland
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by KATU-TV Portland and Roll Call Newspaper, Capital Hill
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by KATU-TV Portland and FOX 12
  5. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Merkley's campaign
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by KATU-TV Portland
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by Roll Call Newspaper and Capitol Hill
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by DSCC
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by Roll Call Newspaper and Capitol Hill
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by Novick's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Esteve, Harry; Crombie, Noelle (November 6, 2008). "Jeff Merkley plunges into his new job in the U.S. Senate". Politics & Elections. The Oregonian. Retrieved November 6, 2008.
  2. ^ Phillips, Kate (June 13, 2008). "G.O.P. Leader Maps Senate Elections" (Blog). The Caucus. The New York Times. Retrieved December 22, 2008.
  3. ^ Mapes, Jeff (October 23, 2008). "Outside interests snag airtime". Local news. The Oregonian. Retrieved December 22, 2008.
  4. ^ "Brownlow could be spoiler in Ore. Senate race". September 15, 2009. Retrieved May 7, 2020.
  5. ^ a b "Content Manager WebDrawer - 2008 Primary Election Official Results".
  6. ^ Kosseff, Jeff (May 16, 2007). "Blumenauer won't run for U.S. Senate". Oregon Live. Archived from the original on May 22, 2007. Retrieved May 16, 2007.
  7. ^ Kosseff, Jeff (April 20, 2007). "DeFazio will not run for Senate". Oregon Live. Archived from the original on October 5, 2025. Retrieved April 20, 2007.
  8. ^ "Hooley will not run for Senate". Oregon Live. March 14, 2007. Archived from the original on January 23, 2025. Retrieved April 13, 2007.
  9. ^ Silverman, Julia. "Kitzhaber says he won't challenge Sen. Smith". Eugene Register-Guard. Retrieved April 3, 2007.
  10. ^ Novick, Steve (January 31, 2007). "If I ran". Cover story. Willamette Week. Archived from the original (Guest article) on April 28, 2007. Retrieved May 6, 2007.
  11. ^ Chisholm, Kari (April 18, 2007). "He's in: Steve Novick takes on Gordon Smith" (Blog). Open Discussion. BlueOregon. Retrieved December 20, 2008.
  12. ^ a b Moore, Scott (May 24, 2007). "Senate, Anyone? Democrats Search for a Candidate" (Article). News: City. The Portland Mercury. Retrieved December 22, 2008.
  13. ^ Cain, Brad (June 29, 2007). "Oregon speaker looks at taking on GOP senator in 2008" (Article). The Associated Press. KGW News. Retrieved December 22, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  14. ^ staff (August 23, 2007). "Golden out of race". Eugene Weekly. Archived from the original (Article) on October 14, 2008. Retrieved December 22, 2008.
  15. ^ staff (August 1, 2007). "Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley Files to Run for United States Senate". Jeff Merkley for Oregon. Archived from the original (Press release) on November 27, 2008. Retrieved December 21, 2008.
  16. ^ a b Mapes, Jeff (October 7, 2007). "Novick jabs at Merkley on Iraq vote" (Blog). Mapes on politics. The Oregonian. Retrieved December 22, 2008.
  17. ^ a b Esteve, Harry (November 26, 2007). "U.S. Senate race: Democrats debate debates" (Article). Politics & Elections. The Oregonian. Retrieved December 22, 2008.
  18. ^ Walsh, Edward (May 21, 2008). "Merkley scores chance to take on Smith". The Oregonian. Archived from the original on May 30, 2008. Retrieved May 21, 2008.
  19. ^ "2008 Slate of Candidates | Constitution Party". Constitution Party of Oregon. June 7, 2008. Archived from the original on June 27, 2008. Retrieved September 25, 2008.
  20. ^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  21. ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  22. ^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  23. ^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  24. ^ "2008 Election United States Senate - Oregon". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 16, 2026.
  25. ^ a b "2008 Oregon Senate". RealClearPolitics. Archived from the original on July 11, 2024. Retrieved April 16, 2026.
  26. ^ a b c d "Merkley Leads Smith By Three in Oregon Senate Race". Rasmussen Reports. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on February 27, 2009. Retrieved April 15, 2026.
  27. ^ "Obama winning big, bringing Merkley with him" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 31, 2008. Retrieved April 17, 2026.
  28. ^ "OR-Sen: Close to closing this one out". Daily Kos. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on November 6, 2008. Retrieved April 15, 2026.
  29. ^ "In Oregon, Obama Pulls Away At the Finish, Dragging Merkley With Him". SurveyUSA. October 27, 2008. Archived from the original on June 5, 2011. Retrieved April 15, 2026.
  30. ^ Law, Steve (October 28, 2008). "Poll says Smith's re-election odds are 'slim'". Portland Tribune. Archived from the original on October 31, 2008. Retrieved April 15, 2026.
  31. ^ "THE RILEY REPORT OREGON Registered Voter Survey Cross Tabulations" (PDF). Riley Research & Association. October 22, 2008. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 29, 2008. Retrieved April 16, 2026.
  32. ^ "OR-Sen: Holding lead". Daily Kos. October 17, 2008. Archived from the original on June 6, 2012. Retrieved April 16, 2026.
  33. ^ "Oregon Democrat Jeff Merkley Benefits Slightly From Obama Coattail, Inches Further Ahead of Incumbent GOP Smith". SurveyUSA. October 13, 2008. Archived from the original on October 18, 2008. Retrieved April 15, 2026.
  34. ^ "OR-Sen, Pres Polling: Good News All Around". Daily Kos. September 25, 2008. Archived from the original on September 26, 2008. Retrieved April 16, 2026.
  35. ^ "Oregon Men Take A 2nd Look At Merkley, Who Catches Smith In Bid To Capture US Senate Seat For Democrats". SurveyUSA. September 24, 2008. Archived from the original on September 27, 2008. Retrieved April 15, 2026.
  36. ^ "Oregon Senate Race Back To A Dead Heat". Rasmussen Reports. September 17, 2008. Archived from the original on September 18, 2008. Retrieved April 15, 2026.
  37. ^ Law, Steve (September 18, 2008). "Contentious Senate race could be a tossup". Portland Tribune. Archived from the original on January 7, 2009. Retrieved April 15, 2026.
  38. ^ a b c James L. (September 11, 2008). "OR-Sen: Merkley Pulls Ahead in New Internal Poll". Swing State Project. Archived from the original on October 9, 2008. Retrieved May 24, 2026.
  39. ^ a b c d "2008 Oregon Senate Election: Smith vs. Merkley". Pollster.com. Archived from the original on January 31, 2010. Retrieved May 24, 2026.
  40. ^ "Oregon Senate: Incumbent Smith Regains Lead, Still Receives Under 50% Support". Rasmussen Reports. August 7, 2008. Archived from the original on August 11, 2008. Retrieved April 16, 2026.
  41. ^ "3 Months to Election, Incumbent Smith 12 Atop Merkley in Bid to Hold US Senate Seat for GOP". SurveyUSA. August 5, 2008. Archived from the original on August 8, 2008. Retrieved April 16, 2026.
  42. ^ "Oregon Senate: Merkley tops Smith for first time 43% to 41%". Rasmussen Reports. July 16, 2008. Archived from the original on July 18, 2008. Retrieved April 16, 2026.
  43. ^ "Oregon Senate: Incumbent Smith Still Below 50% Support". Rasmussen Reports. June 13, 2008. Archived from the original on June 17, 2008. Retrieved April 16, 2026.
  44. ^ Mapes, Jeff (June 26, 2008). "Chamber poll shows Gordon Smith vulnerable". Oregon Live. Archived from the original on September 19, 2008. Retrieved May 24, 2026.
  45. ^ Miller, Matthew (May 21, 2008). "Smith Gambles And Loses, As New Poll Shows Negative Attacks Against Merkley Drive Smith's Job Approval Down To 29%". DSCC. Archived from the original on September 18, 2008. Retrieved May 24, 2026.
  46. ^ a b "Oregon Senate: Smith Still Below 50% in Re-election Bid". Rasmussen Reports. May 10, 2008. Archived from the original on June 17, 2008. Retrieved April 16, 2026.
  47. ^ a b "Oregon Senate: Smith 48% Merkley 30%; Smith 48% Novick 35%". Rasmussen Reports. February 19, 2008. Archived from the original on March 25, 2008. Retrieved April 16, 2026.
  48. ^ "Statewide Voter Survey Cross Tabulations December 2007" (PDF). Riley Research Associates. December 2007. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 19, 2008. Retrieved April 16, 2026.
  49. ^ a b "Republican Incumbent Smith Narrowly Defeats Either Democratic Challenger Today". SurveyUSA. November 5, 2007. Archived from the original on November 18, 2007. Retrieved April 16, 2026.
  50. ^ "THE RILEY REPORT Oregon Likely Voter Survey Analysis & Cross Tabulation" (PDF). Riley Research Associates. August 20, 2007. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 27, 2007. Retrieved April 16, 2026.
  51. ^ Daily Kos Staff (March 26, 2007). "OR-Sen: DeFazio beats Smith -- DSCC poll". Daily Kos. Archived from the original on October 17, 2012. Retrieved May 23, 2026.
  52. ^ Blake, Aaron (July 25, 2007). "Poll: Smith leads Novick by 23 points". The Hill. Archived from the original on November 22, 2008. Retrieved May 24, 2026.
  53. ^ a b Bradbury, Bill. "November 4, 2008, General Election Abstracts of Votes | United States Senator". Oregon Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 11, 2019. Retrieved May 16, 2026.
[edit]

Official campaign websites (archived)

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