2008 United States Senate election in Idaho

2008 United States Senate election in Idaho
← 2002 November 4, 2008 2014 →
	Risch: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; LaRocco: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%; Rammell: 70–80% ; Marmon: >90% ; Tie: 40–50% No data
U.S. senator before election; Larry Craig; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; Jim Risch; Republican

The 2008 United States Senate election in Idaho was held on November 4, 2008, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Idaho. Incumbent Republican U.S. senator Larry Craig decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth term. Fellow Republican incumbent lieutenant governor and former governor Jim Risch won the open seat. Primary elections were held on May 27.^[1]

Background

Incumbent Larry Craig announced his intent to resign following an incident where he allegedly solicited another man for gay sex in a public restroom.^[2] Craig later decided not to resign but did announce that he would not seek re-election. The filing deadline for the election was March 21, 2008. A total of 13 candidates filed for the seat.^[3] Republican and Democratic candidates ran for their respective nominations in the May 27 primary.

Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch defeated a crowded field for the Republican nomination, while former Congressman Larry LaRocco won the Democratic nomination in similar fashion. Conservative independents Rex Rammell and Pro-Life (formerly Marvin Richardson) also qualified for the general election ballot. Former Caldwell city council member Kent Marmon secured the Libertarian nomination. In the general election, Risch defeated LaRocco and the other candidates to keep the seat in Republican hands.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Jim Risch, lieutenant governor of Idaho

Eliminated in primary

Fred Adams
Brian Hefner
Bill Hunter
Richard Phenneger, Businessman
Hal James Styles
Scott Syme, Iraq War veteran^[4]
Neal Thompson

Results

Republican primary results^[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jim Risch	80,743	65.34%
	Republican	Scott Syme	16,660	13.48%
	Republican	Richard Phenneger	6,532	5.29%
	Republican	Neal Thompson	5,375	4.35%
	Republican	Fred M. Adams	4,987	4.04%
	Republican	Bill Hunter	4,280	3.46%
	Republican	Brian E. Hefner	2,915	2.36%
	Republican	Hal James Styles, Jr.	2,082	1.68%
Total votes			123,574	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Larry LaRocco, former U.S. representative for Idaho's 1st congressional district (1991–1995)^[6]

Eliminated in primary

David J. Archuleta

Results

Democratic Primary results^[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Larry LaRocco	29,023	72.35%
	Democratic	David J. Archuleta	11,074	27.60%
	Democratic	Write-ins	20	0.05%
Total votes			40,117	100.00%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[7]	Safe R	October 23, 2008
CQ Politics^[8]	Safe R	October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report^[9]	Safe R	November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics^[10]	Safe R	November 4, 2008

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Jim Risch (R)	Larry LaRocco (D)	Other/Undecided ^[a]	Margin
RealClearPolitics^[11]	August 18–September 17, 2008	September 17, 2008	51.7%	30.7%	17.6%	Risch +21.0%
Rasmussen Reports^[12]	September 9, 2008	September 9, 2008	58.0%	30.0%	12.0%	Risch +28.0%
Average			54.9%	30.4%	14.7%	Risch +24.5%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Jim Risch (R)	Larry LaRocco (D)	Rex Rammell (I)	Other	Undecided
Research 2000^[13]^[A]	September 16–17, 2008	500 (LV)	± 4.0%	56%	33%	3%	3%	5%
Rasmussen Reports^[12]	September 9, 2008	500 (LV)	± 4.0%	58%	30%	–	2%	9%
Greg Smith Polling^[14]	August 18–22, 2008	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	30%	3%	–	26%
Research 2000^[15]^[B]	July 28–30, 2008	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	42%	32%	5%	4%	17%
Celinda Lake (D)^[16]^[C]	May 20–25, 2008	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	43%	28%	5%	–	24%
Robinson Research^[17]^{[permanent dead link]}	November 27–December 12, 2007	–	–	46%	27%	–	–	27%
Myers Research (D)^[18]	November 13–19, 2007	600 (LV)	–	48%	34%	–	–	18%
SurveyUSA^[19]	September 6, 2007	534 (RV)	± 4.3%	52%	36%	–	–	13%

Hypothetical polling

Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Generic Republican	Generic Democrat	Other	Undecided
Myers Research (D)^[18]	November 13–19, 2007	600 (LV)	–	36%	42%	1%	21%

Dirk Kempthorne vs. Larry LaRocco

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Dirk Kempthorne (R)	Larry LaRocco (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyUSA^[19]	September 6, 2007	534 (RV)	± 4.3%	55%	36%	–	9%

David Leroy vs. Larry LaRocco

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	David Leroy (R)	Larry LaRocco (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyUSA^[19]	September 6, 2007	534 (RV)	± 4.3%	42%	39%	–	19%

Mike Simpson vs. Larry LaRocco

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mike Simpson(R)	Larry LaRocco (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyUSA^[19]	September 6, 2007	534 (RV)	± 4.3%	54%	34%	–	12%

Lawrence Wasden vs. Larry LaRocco

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Lawrence Wasden (R)	Larry LaRocco (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyUSA^[19]	September 6, 2007	534 (RV)	± 4.3%	46%	36%	–	17%

Dane Watkins vs. Larry LaRocco

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Dane Watkins (R)	Larry LaRocco (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyUSA^[19]	September 6, 2007	534 (RV)	± 4.3%	40%	41%	–	19%

Results

General election results^[20]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Jim Risch	371,744	57.65%	−7.51%
	Democratic	Larry LaRocco	219,903	34.11%	+1.56%
	Independent	Rex Rammell	34,510	5.35%
	Libertarian	Kent Marmon	9,958	1.54%	−0.75%
	Independent	Pro-Life	8,662	1.35%
	Write-in		3	0.00%
Majority			151,841	23.55%	−9.06%
Turnout			644,780
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Latah (largest municipality: Moscow)
Shoshone (largest municipality: Kellogg)
Teton (largest municipality: Victor)

Notes

^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

Partisan clients

^ Poll sponsored by Daily Kos
^ Poll sponsored by Daily Kos
^ Poll sponsored by Rocco's campaign

References

^ Elections, Campaign Disclosure and Lobbyists Archived August 6, 2008, at the Wayback Machine Idaho Secretary of State
^ "Craig to Announce Resignation Saturday". Archived from the original on September 3, 2007.
^ "LIST OF FEDERAL, STATEWIDE, AND JUDICIAL CANDIDATES" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on March 19, 2008.
^ "Iraq vet announces bid in GOP Senate primary".
^ ^a ^b "2008 Primary Results statewide". Archived from the original on April 16, 2009. Retrieved March 7, 2009.
^ "LaRocco to run for Senate; Craig mum on future]". Retrieved May 8, 2007.^{[dead link]}
^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
^ "2008 Idaho Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved April 26, 2026.
^ ^a ^b "Idaho Senate: GOP's Risch Is Far Ahead 58% to 30%". Rasmussen Reports. September 11, 2008. Archived from the original on September 12, 2008. Retrieved April 26, 2026.
^ "ID-Sen: Republicans pull ahead". Daily Kos. September 19, 2008. Archived from the original on September 20, 2008. Retrieved April 26, 2026.
^ Dienstfrey, Eric (August 28, 2008). "POLL: Greg Smith Idaho (8/18-22)". Pollster.COM. Archived from the original on September 18, 2008. Retrieved April 26, 2026.
^ "ID-Sen: Shockingly close". Daily Kos. July 31, 2008. Archived from the original on August 27, 2008. Retrieved April 26, 2026.
^ "LaRocco Poll—Risch Unknown and Disliked". LaRocco For U.S. Senate. July 1, 2008. Archived from the original on September 18, 2008. Retrieved April 26, 2026.
^ "Robinson Research". Retrieved April 26, 2026.
^ ^a ^b "ID-Sen: Republicans Losing their Luster". Daily Kos. December 12, 2007. Archived from the original on December 14, 2007. Retrieved April 26, 2026.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f "GOP Holds Larry Craig Idaho Senate Seat with Substitute Republican". SurveyUSA. September 8, 2007. Archived from the original on June 5, 2011. Retrieved April 26, 2026.
^ "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".

External links

U.S. Congress candidates for Idaho Archived October 24, 2008, at the Wayback Machine at Project Vote Smart
Robinson Research
Idaho, U.S. Senate from CQ Politics
Idaho U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
Idaho U.S. Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
Campaign contributions for Idaho congressional races from OpenSecrets
Official campaign websites (Archived)
- Jim Risch, Republican nominee
- Larry LaRocco, Democratic nominee
- Kent Marmon, Libertarian nominee
- Rex Rammell, Independent candidate

[11] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[Key-14] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[16] Poll sponsored by Daily Kos

[19] Poll sponsored by Daily Kos

[21] Poll sponsored by Rocco's campaign

[1] Elections, Campaign Disclosure and Lobbyists Archived August 6, 2008, at the Wayback Machine Idaho Secretary of State

[2] "Craig to Announce Resignation Saturday". Archived from the original on September 3, 2007.

[3] "LIST OF FEDERAL, STATEWIDE, AND JUDICIAL CANDIDATES" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on March 19, 2008.

[4] "Iraq vet announces bid in GOP Senate primary".

[sos.idaho.gov-5] "2008 Primary Results statewide". Archived from the original on April 16, 2009. Retrieved March 7, 2009.

[larocco-6] "LaRocco to run for Senate; Craig mum on future]". Retrieved May 8, 2007.^{[dead link]}

[Cook_PR-7] "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.

[8] Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics

[Inside_Elections-9] "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.

[10] "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.

[12] "2008 Idaho Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved April 26, 2026.

[Far_Ahead-13] "Idaho Senate: GOP's Risch Is Far Ahead 58% to 30%". Rasmussen Reports. September 11, 2008. Archived from the original on September 12, 2008. Retrieved April 26, 2026.

[15] "ID-Sen: Republicans pull ahead". Daily Kos. September 19, 2008. Archived from the original on September 20, 2008. Retrieved April 26, 2026.

[17] Dienstfrey, Eric (August 28, 2008). "POLL: Greg Smith Idaho (8/18-22)". Pollster.COM. Archived from the original on September 18, 2008. Retrieved April 26, 2026.

[18] "ID-Sen: Shockingly close". Daily Kos. July 31, 2008. Archived from the original on August 27, 2008. Retrieved April 26, 2026.

[20] "LaRocco Poll—Risch Unknown and Disliked". LaRocco For U.S. Senate. July 1, 2008. Archived from the original on September 18, 2008. Retrieved April 26, 2026.

[22] "Robinson Research". Retrieved April 26, 2026.

[Losing_Luster-23] "ID-Sen: Republicans Losing their Luster". Daily Kos. December 12, 2007. Archived from the original on December 14, 2007. Retrieved April 26, 2026.

[GOP_Holds-24] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f "GOP Holds Larry Craig Idaho Senate Seat with Substitute Republican". SurveyUSA. September 8, 2007. Archived from the original on June 5, 2011. Retrieved April 26, 2026.

[25] "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".

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Background

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

General election

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

Notes

References

External links