SpaceX had their Q2 earnings call and guided to $100 B+ ARR. This was just over my bull case of adding three more Google Sized $11 billion per year ($1 billion per month) deals. Two weeks ago I made a video that indicated that SpaceX would add up to $36 billion per year of new …
The AI2027 superAI scenarios are tracking a bit slower but we are still heading quickly to SuperAI. Risk milestones are arriving ahead of the capability milestones that were supposed to produce them. There is a AI2027 tracking website and they observed capability predictions were running a bit behind but the SWE Verified benchmark caught up. …
Tesla will have over 500,000 cars per quarter for Q3, Q4 2026 and every quarter there after. This is more than the predictions from analysts. I am predicting over 1.1 million vehicles delivered in Q3 and Q4, which is 200,000 over the analysts for the next two quarters and over 2.1 million cars for 2027 …
Nicole Kagan, Head of Research at Kalshi, with hosts Nick and Sam) sees Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated prediction markets as emerging financial instruments that can revolutionize risk hedging across finance, insurance, and beyond. Event contracts (binary Yes/No payouts on real-world outcomes) are tools to financialize uncertainty and turn discrete risks like macroeconomic data releases, policy changes, cultural …
An AI expert from Anthropic predicts a mostly smooth transition for AI over the next 2-3 years where business adopts best practice AI that is unleashing 10X productivity. This will be great value creation that would payoff the trillions we are and will invest. Perfecting and scaling what AI is capable of now and what …
Nvidia researcher James Fan proposes physical Turing test for robots. The robots do not have to be humanoid robots but he wants the bots to go into a very, very messy room and clean it up and prepare a meal for two and set the table. There would be a prepared clean room, the meal …
Yann LeCun is both a giant in the field of AI but also a major skeptic of the ultimate potential of large language models. He is a major skeptic about large language models getting to TRUE AI (aka real AGI or actual superintelligence). He feels the LLM AI will not be able to learn the …
Tesla watchers are eagerly waiting for the new cheaper models. You have questions, I have answers. Here I answer all the questions about the new models. How much will they cost? How many will Tesla make each year? How quickly will they be made ? How many will be made each year? Here we do …
As I have posted, I am a top 8 predictor on Metaculus out of 34617 people according to Metaculus for baseline accuracy. I was asked by a commenter what my public prediction is for will humans land on Mars by 2030? Yes, I believe humans will land on Mars by 2030. I am superconfident SpaceX …
I have made several thousand public predictions at Metaculus. I , Brian Wang, ranked 8th in Baseline Accuracy out of 34617 forecasters. This is a 99.98 percentile ranking. Apparently, some people do not understand a description converted into a mathematical term. Percentile is a mathematical term that is not saying there was X% correct. I …
Elon Musk made huge announcements that Teslabot will start ramping mass production this year and reach 500,000 to 1 million in 2027. The targets are 5,000 bots in 2025 with Q4 2025 being the start of a factory and 50,000 to 100,000 in 2026 and 500,000 to 1 million in 2027. This would be huge …