We Need To Be Careful With Layoff Numbers Right Now
A widely shared GDC survey stat today, echoed by major press as a larger scale finding, suggested that one third of those surveyed, working in games in the United States, were laid off over the past two years. You all know I, of all people on planet earth, would never downplay the human cost behind games layoffs. Every job lost is a person, a family, and a life disrupted. But there is a very large gap between that figure and what I am seeing in the most comprehensive tracked datasets available, and I think that deserves a closer look.
Based on the layoff tracking I maintain by region, North America saw 11,723 games layoffs two years ago and 5,638 last year. That is 17,361 total layoffs across two years. Now we have to pair that with workforce size. The most rigorous attempt I have seen to measure the games workforce comes from Game Industry Coffee Chat, which estimates a median North America games workforce of about 230,000 people:
https://lnkd.in/eb_kK9BV
Even if we assume every one of those 17,361 layoffs impacted a completely different person, which is unlikely since some individuals were laid off more than once, that equals roughly 8 percent of the workforce over two years. That is still deeply serious. But it is very different from one third.
For one third of the workforce to have been laid off in the United States over the past two years, we would be talking about roughly 66,000 people, not 17,361. That is a difference of nearly 49,000 roles. And even if we narrow from North America to the United States only, where GICC estimates about 200,000 games workers, the percentage still lands in the same range, about 8 percent, nowhere near a third.
So how do numbers get that far apart? Survey data around layoffs can skew high for many reasons. People who were directly impacted are far more likely to respond. Surveys often circulate most heavily in communities already affected. Definitions of “games industry” vary widely between respondents. Some surveys are global but get interpreted as U.S. only. Others may include contract endings, short term roles, or adjacent tech roles differently. Without tight sampling controls, surveys can end up reflecting who feels the pain most strongly rather than the full workforce picture.
None of this makes the last two years any less painful. They have been among the hardest periods our industry has faced. But if we want to advocate effectively for workers, studios, and long term stability, our numbers have to be as rigorous as our empathy. Clear data helps us understand the true scale of the challenge and push for solutions that actually match reality. This is why I have always relied on direct measurement of all figures rather than anything polling or survey related, although those can also be used to calibrate if and when they align with hard data.