3RD UPDATE, 8:48PM: We’ve seen two mega-franchise movies go up against each other before during Memorial Day weekend, but whenever this happens one always comes up with the short-end of the stick at the box office.
Countless examples abound, i.e. 2013 when Fast & Furious 6 ($117M FSSM) squared off with Hangover III ($50.3M) and 2009 when Night of the Museum 2 ($70.1M) faced off with Terminator Salvation ($51.9M).
A similar scenario is occurring once again this weekend with 20th Century Fox’s X-men: Apocalypse squashing Disney’s Alice Through the Looking Glass, $82.6M to $40M. Both of these films cost north of $170M. Was it a good idea for one to butt up against the other? Each title needs the widest audience possible in order to see black. We need to question whether pitting two tentpoles of this magnitude over the four-day holiday is a financially sound practice. We know people go to the movies at the end of the year, however, the Memorial Day frame has shown leaks; it’s arguably only big enough to withstand one four-quad gorilla.
Recent Comments
Currently, 20th Century Fox’s X-Men: Apocalypse is coming in toward Fox’s conservative projection of $80M+ over FSSM. Earlier in the week many rivals predicted a $100M+ opening, but Fox always knew the fourth X-Men movie directed by Bryan Singer was going to file lower first because they were coming off a high with Days of Future Past (FSSM opening $110.6M), and second those God-awful Apocalypse reviews at 48% rotten. X-Men is set to make $68M over FSS and $27M for Friday at 4,150 theaters. On a three-day basis it will be the fourth best opening for an X-Men movie not counting Wolverine. CinemaScore is an A-, which is less than Days of Future Past‘s A, but whips those poor reviews. Alice Through the Looking Glass is still looking at $30.9M over FSS and $9M for today. CinemaScore audiences loved it as much as the 2010 film with an A-.
Apocalypse demos were similar to Days of Future Past: 60% males showed up with 58% over 25. Sixty-one percent of those watching X-Men did so because they love the property, while 28% came out for the actors and 24% came out to watch Jennifer Lawrence and Olivia Munn. Hugh Jackman was a bigger draw on Days of Future Past at 32%. The under 18 demo at 22% loved Apocalypse the most with an A.
Despite Alice 2 vying for young girls and families, “X-Men isn’t doing it any favors at the box office,” said one distribution chief. And even though X-Men is reaping 
the spoils, I’m sure Fox would be happier if that hag Alice and her kooky friends weren’t standing around, stealing their cash. And with all the family product in the market —Angry Birds with $22M FSS, -42%, as well as Disney’s own Jungle Book with $11M over FSSM– the question begged is why Disney kept Alice 2 on Memorial Day weekend? Yes, they were looking to get the biggest audience possible, but that’s not the case with all this competition in the marketplace. In regards to marketing, Disney certainly didn’t bail on Alice 2. That’s not Disney’s way. And you can’t blame Johnny Depp’s glossy magazine cover woes today. If this sequel meant anything, Disney should have found another date when there was less competition cutting into its till. Granted, they chose this date first back in November 2013 before Fox staked the same date out for X-Men a month later. “I would have moved Alice,” asserted our rival distrib exec about keeping the sequel alive, “but that’s not Disney’s way. They’re not reactive. Their record is 88 to 2 and they never lose. They probably said to themselves when X-Men moved on the date, ‘We’ll figure it out'”.
Granted, there are other factors that go into dating a wide release stateside. Overseas factors into it, and Alice 2 is opening in 72% of the foreign market this weekend. In addition, distrib chiefs will pound their fists in their hands and say, that business during the summer is all about the weekdays. However, every weekend this summer feels like a Kamikaze mission for every wide release. There’s just too many wide entries at 51 this summer compared to 42 last year.
And while we can point to the waning 3D craze, Depp’s falling star (35% came out to see him for Alice 2 vs. 51% for Alice) and the lack of the Burton aficionados as factors impacting Alice 2‘s ticket sales, our rival distrib chief continues, “The first movie wasn’t that good, so I was surprised that they made a sequel. Until Alice made all that money.” Critics weren’t so keen with 2010’s Alice in Wonderland giving it a 52% rotten score. Alice 2 fared worse with a 29% rotten rating. More females at 72% came out to watch Alice 2, than Alice (60%), while the under 25 demo was about the same size as the first time around with 59%. Forty-six percent bought tickets to Alice 2 for the subject matter. Alice 2 also got a little younger according to CinemaScore with the under 18 crowd at 43%, while Alice drew 34%.
At the Sundance Film Festival, Whit Stillman foresaw a date movie this summer in his Jane Austen adaptation Love & Friendship, and he’s definitely getting one as his fifth feature directorial cracks into the top 10 with a projected 4-day of $3.5M. We can’t discount A24’s expansion of its quirky Alchemy pick-up The Lobster which played the Cannes Film Festival last year. The Yorgos Lanthimos comedy is up 69% in its third FSS after expanding to 116 theaters for a 12th place rank. Also coming on strong with per screen averages is the second frames of IFC’s Weiner doc and Sony Pictures Classics’ dramedy Maggie’s Plan starring Greta Gerwig, Julianne Moore and Ethan Hawke.
The top 10 films for Memorial Day weekend May 27-30, 2016 per industry estimates as of 8:30PM Friday. We’ll update again in the morning:
1). X-Men: Apocalypse (FOX), 4,150 theaters / $27M Fri. (includes $8.2M previews) / 3-day cume: $68M /4-day: $82.6M Wk 1
2). Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney), 3,763 theaters / $9M Fri. (includes $1.5M previews) / 3-day cume: $30.9M /4-day: $40M/Wk 1
3). The Angry Birds Movie (SONY/ROVIO), 3,932 theaters (0)/ $5.1M Fri.(-53%) / 3-day cume: $22M (-42%)/4-DAY: $30.2M /Total cume: $77.8M/ Wk 2
4). Captain America: Civil War (Disney), 3,395 theaters (-831) / $4.1M Fri. (-52%)/ 3-day cume: $16.6M (-50%) /4-day: $21.5M/ Total cume: $379M/ Wk 4
5). Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (UNI), 3,416 theaters (+32)/ $2.6M Fri. (-70%)/ 3-day cume: $9.3M (-57%)/4-day: $11.7M/Total cume: $41M/ Wk 2
6). The Jungle Book (DIS), 2,523 theaters (-937) / $1.8M Fri. (-33%) / 3-day cume: $7.8M (-29%)/4-day: $10.7M/ Total cume: $342.2M / Wk 7
7). The Nice Guys (WB), 2,865 theaters (0)/ $1.8M Fri. (-55%) / 3-day cume: $6.8M (-39%)/4-day: $8.7M/Total: $24.1M/ Wk 2
8). Money Monster (SONY), 2,315 theaters (-789) / $1.1M Fri. (-45%) / 3-day cume: $4.4M (-38%)/4-day: $5.7M/Total cume: $35.3M/Wk 3
9.) Love & Friendship (AMZ/RSA), 493 theaters (+446) / $638K Fri. (+32o%) / 3-day cume: $2.7M (+381%)/4-day:$3.5M /Total cume: $4.5M/Wk 3
10.) Zootopia (DIS), 572 theaters (-805) / $173K Fri. (-55%) / 3-day cume: $812K (-52%) / 4-day: $1.1M/Total cume: $336.2M / Wk 13
11). The Darkness (HTR), 1,004 theaters (-765)/ $190K Fri. (-73%) / 3-day cume: $696K (-69%)/4-day: $852K/Total Cume: $10M/ Wk 3
12.) The Lobster (A24), 116 theaters (+92) / $188K Fri. (+55%)/ 3-day cume: $657K (+69%)/4-day: $845K/Total cume: $2.1M/Wk 3
Notables:
Weiner (IFC), 27 theaters (+22) / $41K Fri. (+100%) /3-day cume: $172k (+105%)/$6k PTA /4-day: 224K/Total Cume: $353K/ Wk 2
Maggie’s Plan (SPC), 19 theaters (+14) / $24K Fri. (+40%) /3-day cume: $97K (+54%)/$5K PTA/4-day: $126K/Total cume: $215K/Wk 2
2ND UPDATE, 11:50 AM: Oh, no! It looks like it’s Tomorrowland all over again for Disney. Industry projections shows 20th Century Fox’s super-charged X-Men: Apocalypse raining meteors on Disney’s sequel Alice Through the Looking Glass, with respective 4-day takes of $90M to $40M. Alice 2 cost $170M before P&A, so if these figures keep up and don’t pop, it’s off with her head.
X-Men looks to mint $29M-$30M today which includes an $8.2M Thursday, while Alice looks to eat up $9M, including a meh Thursday of $1.5M. 
Three-day for X-Men is $78M, while Alice will file second with $31M. It’s funny, we heard a lone projection from an analyst earlier in the week that Alice 2 was poised to tank, but we thought that was far too cynical; most box office trackers were seeing Alice 2‘s opening through rosy-colored glasses with $55M-$60M.
Disney actually owns the top opening of all-time for Memorial Day weekend: 2007’s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End with $139.8M. However, the studio hasn’t had much fortune with the holiday since 2010’s Prince of Persia which flopped with $37.9M FSSM debut ($90.8M final domestic) and last year’s Tomorrowland which opened to $42.7M (domestic final $93.4M). Like Alice 2, both of those titles came with steep estimated price tags between $190M-$200M. Why did Disney plop Alice 2 here? They wanted to launch the movie on a weekend when a slew of families head to the cinema.
Again, it’s still early in the weekend. Never good to pronounce a film dead this early on, but it’s not looking promising at this point for Alice 2. While 3D was a huge factor for the first Alice in Wonderland, it’s less a factor this time around as families, which are the core audience here for the James Bobin-directed movie, opt for cheaper ticket prices. Even though Disney has Imax, a format that any studio would envy in their theater count, it’s not a format particularly meant for a PG movie geared toward little girls. It comes as no surprise to hear that PLFs are doing more business for X-Men, a comic book movie.
It should also be noted that Depp-gate, which is occurring right now in the actor’s divorce proceedings with Amber Heard, is not a negative factor contributing to Alice 2‘s dismal box office projections. Usually such glossy matters do not enter into a moviegoer’s decision-making process, plus in all fairness to Disney they sold this movie on all of the characters we loved from the first Alice. A case in point on how scandals do not impact the B.O.: the hot water that director Bryan Singer found himself in a month prior to X-Men: Days of Future Past opening. Those allegations against the director surrounding his affairs with minors didn’t put any dampers on the ticket sales for X-Men: Days of Future Past. That film would go on to become the second-highest grossing title in the franchise with $233.9M at the domestic B.O.
1ST UPDATE, 7:30 AM: 20th Century Fox’s X-Men: Apocalypse made $8.2M last night from 3,565 theaters with showtimes starting at 7 PM, while Disney’s Alice Through the Looking Glass gulped the shrinking potion and made $1.5M.
By comparison, 2014’s X-Men: Days of Future Past grossed $8.1M on Thursday night before chalking up a $35.5M first day. 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand owns the best Memorial Day Friday bow with $45.1M. Also two years ago, but during the post-Memorial Day weekend, Disney’s Maleficient made $4.2M.
X-Men Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass are hands down the No. 1 and 2 draws over the four-day Memorial Day holiday. Hopefully, Apocalypse pegs another slot on the all-time Memorial Day openers list. Rival projections are at $100M-plus for the Bryan Singer-directed movie, but Fox has a more conservative outlook of $80M+ over four-days. Meanwhile, Alice Through the Looking Glass is seeing $55M-$60M+ over FSSM. We’ll be hearing from Disney soon as to how Alice fared Thursday night.
On the list of all-time best Memorial Day domestic openers, 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand with $122.9M and X-Men: Days of Future Past with $110.6M rank third and fifth, respectively.
Fandango reported Thursday that advance ticket sales for Apocalypse were on par with Days of Future Past, while Alice Through the Looking Glass is in sync with Disney’s 2014 post-Memorial Day hit Maleficent, which made $69.4M in its first FSS.
Other than Wolverine, X-Men: Apocalypse is arguably the worst-reviewed title in the series at 47% Rotten. However, the franchise has shown to deflect any bitter word-of-mouth in the past: The Last Stand had a 58% Rotten Tomatoes score, but landed an A- CinemaScore — and it’s the highest grossing film in the series. Days of Future Past won over both tweeds and moviegoers with a 91% Rotten Tomatoes score and an A CinemaScore. Alice also has a similar scenario at the B.O., where the populist vote is bigger than the smarty pants’ one. The first Alice received a mixed response from film reviewers at 52% despite earning an A- CinemaScore and a final domestic of $334.2M. Currently, there are more critics that loathe Alice Through the Looking Glass than Apocalypse at 27% rotten.
Disney reported Thursday night demos for Alice Through the Looking Glass as follows: 51% female, 49% male, with 42% under 25. Families made up 21% of the crowd. In regards to the discrepancy between X-Men and Alice last night, one East Coast-based exhibitor told Deadline this morning that it boiled down to the PLFs. Read, one of his auditoriums grossed $2,600 from X-Men, while Alice made $300. “I wanted to share my PLF with the two films, but Fox would not allow where Disney would. I think this will result in X-Men doing better than expected and Alice underperforming,” said Deadline’s deep throat source.
The reasons this Alice won’t be as high as the original stem from various factors: It doesn’t have the Tim Burton-philes in its court, the 2010 pic benefited from a post-Avatar 3D craze — 71% of its domestic B.O. came from the format — and it was the only wide entry when it opened during the first weekend of March with $116.1M. Thirty-nine percent of Alice in Wonderland‘s audience came from families, while it skewed female at 55% with 54% under 25.
Among the regular rank of movies in play, Disney’s Captain America: Civil War has been the top draw during the past four weekdays. The Russo brothers movie made $2.1M last night at 4,226 theaters for a three week cume of $357.5M; that’s 7% behind Avengers: Age of Ultron. which finaled at $459M. If Civil War keeps up its pace, then it will final a stateside B.O. north of $425M. Here are the first-week cumes for last weekend’s entries: Sony/Rovio’s The Angry Birds Movie ($47.7M), Universal’s Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising ($29.2M) and Warner Bros.’ The Nice Guys ($15.4M). Everyone is looking forward to strong holds thanks to the four-day holiday stretch.
X-MEN – APOCALYPSE deserves much more money, I enjoyed this movie so damn much.
Not only does it deserve more money, it deserves better reviews, the bad reviews are a joke, they clearly do not get these movies. It was awesome!
ALICE looks terrible. Dark, weird, unappealing. I think X-MEN is going to be huge. This weekend will also be strong for CIVIL WAR and ANGRY BIRDS. Families want to see something fun. I hope NICE GUYS sells some tickets too.
Dark wasn’t it’s problem, although unappealing is accurate. I’d add boring, uninspired, and way too much CGI
No, it deserves a better director and better direction. It’s getting a better reception then it’s earned.
disney plant, disney shill here.
I notice you didn’t say you saw it. I did. I’ll never believe a Hollywood critic again. They LIED! This movie was awesome!!!
No I haven’t seen it and I don’t plan to. I’ve seen the first two and enough promotions for this one to know that it’s generic.
Ok anonymous
I have 0 desire to see Apocalypse in the movie theatre. I will wait for the blu-ray. Ever since they showed how apocalypse looked I was not sold. He looks so much better in the comics. Civil War for the win!
Saw x-men – apocalyps last night and give it two thumbs up, I like it.
I really do not understand the reviews, the bad reviews make no sense at all.
Most bad reviews state the many characters and lack of screen time for some, well captain america had a lot of characters and felt jumbled with some characters getting only a few lines, and yet that got better ratings? Pathetic disney and pathetic bad critics. Disney agenda much?
20th century fox has done another good job with this film.
Here’s to more x-men films and mr. sinister.
Ahhh, spoiler alert man!
But yes, x-men 9 is great!
The Alice movie is getting bad reviews and I still say there are disney shills giving x-men bad reviews when it should be getting great reviews since it is better than many comic book movies. I say there are disney shills even though alice is getting bad reviews, because I think that disney does not want to pay a lot of money for Johnny Depp films anymore after Pirates 5. So how do they do this, give bad reviews or rather pay for bad reviews for alice so it does not do well, and they will not renew Johnny’s contract.
Which Civil War characters only had a few lines? Ones that have already introduced in the Marvel movies, not newcomers like Spidey, Black Panther and Zemo. But Angel and Psylocke are completely wasted in Apocalypse.
crossbones to name one, can’t remember the others names, confusing disney marvel film, avengers 3 is. Yoda speak.
anyway Psylocke and Arch Angle lwere awesome in X-Men and Psylocke is like the Darth Maul of x-men, just awesome!
Angel and Psylocke are playing henchmen and they do that just fine.
which characters? Off the top of my head, Vision, Scarlett Witch and Crossbones. All three had little screen time and lines in their last outings, and the same for their new movie. So yeah, disney marvel captain america is guilty of underusing characters.
By the way, I like X-MEN : Apocalypse.
How on Earth did Vision and Scarlet Witch have few lines and were underused?
So what they inexplicably forgot to ensure Alice got good reviews? Or bribery only works to tarnish something not make something look good? Lazy conspiracy theories much?
It was better than ‘Deadpool’, don’t care for my comic book movies to be crass. But Deadpool’s outfit is cool.
X men is a great movie, ok some of the criticism is justified but there’s nothing movie braking in there. I see it as a repositioning of the franchise to be more like its source material. Most of the negative stuff is from people who are unfamiliar with this material. Recommended.
Meh. After the mess that was DoFP, I’m skipping Apocalypse.
obvious disney shill
How old are you -12?
I have collected Comics for 25 years.
X-Men is terrible.
BvS is better and it was just mediocre.
Captain America gets the characters right.
Shill harder Disney.
Wait, I teach Elementary School. Let me save you time and finish this argument for you:
– Disney Shill
– Are not
– Are too
– Prove it
– You’re a shill because you like loser things
– It’s not a loser thing! I just like one movie over another
– Anyone who likes it is a shill, you shill
– Well maybe you’re a FOX shill
– Are not you’re the shill
– Are too
et cetera…
There. Now we don’t have to have this argument here every week.
X-Men 1, 2 and DOFP were fantastic. BvS was dour trash. CW was fantastic. Move on.
How old are you? Shills tend to be childish, immature
you are a shill, a disney shill
X-men is good, your loss, but whatever, I do not care what you think shill.
Deadpool was 10x better than X-MEH: Apocashit
No, no it is not. That is the problem with today’s society, childish, crass and not intelligent.
Social media just makes it worse
x-men – apocalypse is miles better than deadpoo.
I’m glad for X-Men. I was afraid it would flop with some 40-50 millions. As no one was anticipating this movie and there was no buzz. But 80-100 millions is great. It was good movie.
‘X-Men – Apocalypse’ is another fine installment in the x-men franchise. I am looking forward to ‘Wolverine 3’
Apocalypse was just okay. The critics have an idea that it’s a step back from DoFP (which I find overrated), but it’s not nearly as bad. I just want it to do well this weekend because the more this movie makes, the less Alice and TMNT2 make.
I absolutely do not like it that Baxter Stockman, Beebop and Rocksteady and Krang are in this. Because I have wanted to see them on a live action Turtles movies, but this looks like crap. The remake was crap. The only good one was the 1990 film, parts of the 2nd one (I said parts, the rest is crap, the dancing, ehh) and bits of the cgi one, the 4th movie. So yeah, I hope X-men is number one next week as well as this weekend.
I can’t get over how stupid your username is. To include the prequels in anything is like announcing, “I’m stupid. Ignore my opinions!!!”
The prequels. Ridiculous.
I can not believe how stupid you are, not noticing my username is a FACT and also can not believe how daft and stupid you are for not noticing that the prequels are canon and done by lucas officially and tried things differently, where as the NOT CANON disney star wars film, a remake, just plagiarized everything from the star wars movies, the 6 canon ones. Episode 3 is so awesome, your opinions are wrong because it is a face that episode 3 is totally awesome!
Disney remake star wars REMAKE- RIDICULOUS!
Key Largo 1948 film – Excellent film
Largo you – ridiculously stupid!
FACTS!
I really wish it was a requirement to be over 13 to post on these boards.
Apocalypse was just okay. The critics have an idea that it’s a step back from DoFP (which I find overrated), but it’s not nearly as bad as X3. I just want it to do well this weekend because the more this movie makes, the less Alice and TMNT2 make.
I enjoyed more than Civil War. I know Civil War was good, actually, but it was so over-hyped that when I saw it, nothing really wowed me, because of high expectations. I heard bad things about Apocalypse and, in the end, it was fantastic. Plus, it handled consequences a lot better. People actually died on both sides. Characters went through arcs that really changed them as characters. It wasn’t just, I send you an apology letter and all is hunky-dory with the world.
Technically everything isn’t really chunky dory after CW. An Olive branch isn’t the same as healing everything.
Completely incorrect interpretation of Civil War. The losses were much more layered and complex. Someone dying in a movie is an easily conveyed, overt loss. What happened in CW was much more emotional, not to mention written in a much better way. No comparison.
So, please, tell us, then.
Cause I can tell you everything will be fine as ever in 20 minutes of the next Avengers film, whereas each X-Men changes a lot from each other.
Americans have gotten sick of Johnny Depp’s repetitive schtick and maybe remember how bad that last Alice flick was. Another insta-flop that will need foreign BO to make up.
Thanks. :-)
“In all fairness to Disney they sold this movie on all of the characters we loved from the first Alice.” WE? The first movie SUCKED. Just because it made $1 billion doesn’t make it good. The fact nobody seemingly wants to see this sequel is proof positive most audiences really didn’t like it, even though everyone went out to see it because of Depp, Burton and the source material
Yes!!! A perfect storm at the cinema, as Alice bombs and proves that we won’t pay money to see an ugly-looking CGI nightmare with no coherent storytelling or compelling characters. Maybe this will serve as a lesson to Disney that not every one of their IP’s deserves a sequel.
I saw x men apocalypse last night and it was good . I think the bad reviews is due to the fact that the expectation of apocalypse was much high as it’s predecessor ‘days of future past’ was amazing and one of the best x men movies.
I think the ending of x men apocalypse was a low point of the entire movie.
If ALICE is geared for little girls, someone forgot to tell the marketing department. The trailer looks like a CGI-drenched horror movie. I turned to my girl friend when it was over and said, “Fun for the whole family–The Manson Family!”
Come see Alice Through the Looking Glass — a FAMILY picture!
*shrug* I liked horror/scariness as a little girl and would definitely have been attracted to Burton’s Alice. Or, any of Burton’s films, honestly.
Looks like Depp is getting beat up this weekend.
I really hope Apocalypse adjusts down for actuals or at least has a 70% or higher drop for its second weekend.
For the 3rd time, Disney dumps a huge budget movie on Memorial Day weekend that will flop. Prince of Persia (2011), Tomorrowland (2015) and now Alice in the Looking Glass (2016). Should probably stay away from this weekend from now on…
I wish somebody had warned me about the Pink music video tacked onto the prints of “Alice 2.”
What is this? 2003?
Disney synergy at its most cynical.
“Even though Disney has Imax, a format that any studio would envy in their theater count, it’s not a format particularly meant for a PG movie geared toward little girls. It comes as no surprise to hear that PLFs are doing more business for X-Men, a comic book movie.”
Yeah, I called that long ago. I said flat out, X-Men will destroy Alice on the PLF screens. Disney probably wanted the imax screens in order to lower X-Men’s gross, so they booked them WAY before Fox could. The problem for Disney, Dreamworks, and the like is that parents WILL NOT pay for a PLF experience unless it’s maybe something like Star Wars or Avengers. PLFs are geared more towards the fanboy and audio/visual tech crowd. Parents just want to get their screaming kids in and out for as cheap as possible. So if you’re think of booking a cartoon like How to Train Your Dragon or a Lego Movie sequel, do yourselves a favor and don’t, because the PLF numbers will suck.
Alice is gonna drop! Serves wife beater right!
A lot of people went to see alice in wonderland but was literally anyone on the planet keen for a sequel? It’s not like Alice is franchise like LOTR or Batman. Plus the longer disney waited to make the Alice sequel, the longer audiences had to remember that the first one was awful. Couple that with increasingly unlikable Johnny Depp aand Sacha Baron Cohen at the near rock bottom of his career and you have a bonafide failure of a movie. The awful Pink trailers and terrible reviews merely seal the deal. If I were Disney, I’d be very worried about that pirates sequel and very thankful that Jungle Book is protecting the disney brand.
They didn’t market Alice well. I didn’t see any commercials for it until last week during an NBA playoff game, and I never saw the trailer.