One-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas and a quarter of seaborne oil trade pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The question of what happens to that waterway after this war ends is the most consequential piece of postwar economic statecraft the region has faced in decades.
KARV Partner, Amir Handjani addressed it yesterday in Foreign Policy before today's ceasefire made the piece essential reading.
At KARV, Amir has been a central part of the firm's advisory work across the Gulf counseling sovereign institutions, investors, and governments navigating one of the world's most complex geopolitical environments. That context informs everything in this piece.
His case: Iran will not walk away from the Strait. The mechanism to extract fees already exists. The legal path to formalize it, through a bilateral Iran-Oman transit authority, guaranteed by Washington and denominated in dollars, is complicated but not insurmountable. Structured correctly, it gives every party something: Iran gets legitimacy and revenue, the GCC gets contractual certainty over its export routes, and Washington gets petrodollar reinforcement at precisely the moment it faces its greatest challenge in 50 years.
As Amir writes: "The tollbooth that Iran has built could, with the right architecture, become the most consequential piece of postwar economic statecraft the Middle East has seen since Nasser nationalized Suez in 1956."
Read the full piece here: https://lnkd.in/eeeMYB2i
