Monthly Outlook

High pressure will dominate throughout the first week of November. It should shift farther north, leading to cooler and drier than average conditions for a while with fog patches.

Low pressure systems are expected to return towards mid-month to bring a wetter, windier but milder regime that should linger into the second half of November.

There is a chillier possibility by the end of the month but that's a low risk at the moment.

Rather dry due to high pressure. Foggy in places

On Saturday a weakening front will bring some rain to north and west Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Parts of north Wales and northern and eastern England may see a little patchy rain on Sunday as the remains of this front move south-eastwards. However, much of the UK will have a dry weekend, with banks of low cloud and fog overnight and in the mornings. Some of these may be slow to clear but some sunshine should emerge in places.

The coming week will see high pressure dominating. Monday will have patches of locally dense fog and low cloud lingering in places but most of the UK will brighten up. However, eastern and south-eastern England could be cloudier with some patchy rain.

High pressure will then most likely become centred over or near Scotland, and that will serve to bring some cooler north to north-easterly winds, with temperatures near to slightly below normal in many areas. There will be higher chances of frost, while fog may still occur. However, fog will be more likely in the northern UK because of increasing breezes farther south as they veer north-east to easterly.

It will remain largely dry but there is going to be a chance of some patchy rain developing, chiefly across eastern and southern parts of England. Late in the week high pressure could start to drift away, with Atlantic fronts starting to push rain towards western areas, although not necessarily arriving yet.

An unsettled pattern may return

By the middle of November there should be a change in the weather pattern. There are signs that the blocked pattern will relax, with high pressure receding southeastwards after a couple days, while a stronger Atlantic jet stream fires up. That will cause low pressure systems to develop and track near the northern UK, with associated frontal systems swinging through.

Timing of any regime change is hard to pinpoint at this range, and there may mostly dry weather for a while longer before rain starts to encroach as the week goes by.

This pattern evolution should mean an eventual wetter and windier trend for the UK. Northern and western regions may see more rain than the south and east, thanks to the possible proximity of high pressure over mainland Europe. It might take a while longer for frontal rain to reach south-eastern areas.

After a cool start to the week, milder conditions should develop.

Unsettled. Potentially chillier later

An unsettled pattern is most probable into the second half of November, with further low pressure and frontal systems impacting the UK. These will bring rounds of wet and windy weather, with the western and northern UK having wetter than normal conditions throughout the week. Southern and eastern England may not be as wet, but all areas should see some rain at times. Temperatures should be a little higher than normal overall but more variable in the north, swinging between mild and cooler.

The last week of November is more problematic, with competing atmospheric configurations indicated. A similar pattern may continue for most areas, but there is a chance of a cooler and drier development, at least in the north. Current happenings in the stratosphere might eventually play a role as the polar vortex is getting disrupted throughout early November, which is unusually or even uniquely early. If any effects were to filter down to the surface, it would take at least a couple of weeks, so that could be towards the end of November. It's nothing more than an outside risk at the moment but if this were to manifest then chiller weather could arrive.

In Tuesday's update we will see if there is any sign of the disturbed polar vortex manifesting in a spell of colder weather late in November, or whether it will just remain a lower probability risk.