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Host Katherine Lanpher talks with TIME business and economics reporters to sort through the headlines, forecasts, news and numbers that will help you weather these challenging times.

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January 2011
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Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business

View from Davos: How Would Clinton Create Jobs?

Bill Clinton says unemployment doesn't have to stay high in the US (Christian Hartmann/REUTERS)

Bill Clinton wants to get you a job.

There is a debate about how much government can do to boost employment. If companies are uncertain about the economy, they won't spend money and hire employees. Worse, if the unemployment problem is structural, then many Americans may stay out of work even when the economy recovers because they don't have the skills employers are looking for. But the former President, disagrees with that assessment. He thinks there is a lot more that Obama and Washington can do to boost employment. And, surprisingly, the answer is does not revolve around more stimulus spending. Here's Bill Clinton's jobs plan:

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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, (center) expressed his views about municipal bond on a panel at the World Economic Forum moderated by TIME's Fareed Zakaria (Vincent Kessler/REUTERS)

There has been a lot of anxiety about Munis recently. Bank analyst Meredith Whitney, who was early in calling problems in the financial markets before the crisis, predicts as many as 100 significant defaults in the municipal bond market, costing investors potentially $100 billion in losses. On Wednesday, at TIME's Davos kick-off panel NYU economist Nouriel Roubini cited the problem local governments were having paying down debt as one of major potential minefields that could derail the recovery. So is a market that is a key staple of many individuals' portfolios set to blow up and take the economy with it?

Perhaps not. At least that was the view expressed by Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, on a panel at the World Economic Forum called The Next Shocks: Are We Prepared, which was moderated by TIME's own Fareed Zakaria. Dimon said that while states and munis have a debt problem, it's not a big enough problem to derail the economy in 2011 or 2012. But while munis may not be a big economic threat, they could cause some investing shocks this year. Here's why:

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Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg is one of the few Davos Women (Christian Hartmann/REUTERS)

I was LOLing at my friend Anya Schiffrin's very clever piece in the Guardian this week on the new quota for women at Davos. I also love her Davos Wife blog for Reuters: (the list of essentials is truly mandatory reading for all Forum participants).

• Sleeping pills to help cope with jet lag. (Nothing worse than staggering off to the inevitable breakfast with Pakistani PM at 2am EST)
• Bottles of water as it's very dry there.
• A few books and magazines to read while waiting for my husband. Vanity Fair is too thick so I will try and pick up a copy of Monocle at the airport.
• A thick skin. I developed this over the years. It's a vital protection from the barrage of snubs that are bound to come my way.

Although I am sitting this year out myself, as anyone who has been knows, there's hardly a skirt in the crowd, and the WEF has decided to try and fix that by force. Personally, I don't think they should. Here's why:

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Tunisia, Egypt and the Coming Generational Explosion


A combo of pictures shows Egyptian demonstrators tearing a huge portrait of President Hosni Mubarak during a protest (Getty Images)

A guest post from business author Don Tapscott:

Davos: Having just done a CNBC interview I was reminded of the interplay between the global media and the discussions among leaders at Davos. News reporters in the tents on the roof of the Congress center naturally want opinions on events happening today and how to relate those to the deliberations taking place in the building below.

CNBC wanted to lead with the Egypt story, and both upstairs and downstairs the developments in Tunisia and now the protests in the streets of Egypt have many concerned about the Mideast and beyond.

And rightly so. The world is a powder keg as a demographic tidal wave of young people enter a jobless workforce and societies that need deep political and social reform.

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Jobless Claims Jump

Getty Images

Should we worry about the numbers out today showing that jobless claims have surged to 454,000 thousand, up from 403,000 the week previously? That's a large jump, one of the biggest in recent memory. At the same time, there's some new data showing that orders of big new equipment and machinery are down, which hints at future job losses.

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Joseph Stigliz is one of the many economists talking about debt at Davos (Vincent Kessler/REUTERS)

Now that we have the recovery, we will have to pay for it. The question is did we take the appropriate measures or did we overspend.

On Thursday, the CBO estimated that the federal deficit in 2011 will reach nearly $1.5 trillion. That's up from nearly $1.3 trillion last year. Three years after the financial crisis many had hoped what were supposed to be temporary budget deficits would be shrinking by now. That's especially true because early bailout measures like TARP ended up mostly paying for itself.

So why is the deficit still rising? It's because the recession has turned out to be weaker than many expected, and unemployment has stayed high. The tax cut passed late last year, which some called a second stimulus, will alone add $400 billion to the debt this year. Here in Davos, where business and political leaders are meeting for the World Economic Forum, there are two views on debt that are being expressed. And at least one of them seems to suggest the recent run up in US deficits aren't that bad. Here's why:

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What the 'New Global Elite' are Talking About at Davos

World Economic Forum tries to make room for youth (Vincent Kessler/REUTERS)

A guest post from business author Don Tapscott.

Over the years I've been attending Davos not as a Global 500 CEO, government or NGO leader but as a worker. Basically I'm one of hundreds of academics and authors who are invited to hold sessions, participate in panels and otherwise try to stimulate everyone else to be innovative about improving the state of the world.

On Wednesday I had the pleasure of hosting a session on the New Realities with the Forum's community of Young Global Leaders.  The session addressed the question: If structural change is becoming the norm globally, then what are the major adjustments looming ahead and how should leaders face them? Here are some of the answers being discussed at Davos:

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Japan's downgrade: A peek at America's future?

Let's take a look at a country with mounting national debt, big fiscal deficits, low growth, and no solid plan for dealing with those problems due to incessant political bickering. In this case I'm talking about Japan, but many of you could have rightly assumed I was talking about the U.S. That's why what happened today to Japan could very well be in America's future, with serious consequences for the global economy.

Standard & Poor's on Thursday downgraded Japan's long-term credit rating. Granted, the rating is still very, very strong, but the action does indicate how investors are growing nervous about the deteriorating state of government finances even in those economies considered to be the bedrock of the global economy.

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Why Obama is right about the American economy

Living out here in Asia, it's only too easy to see how quickly the East is catching up to, and in some cases, even surpassing the United States. The airport in Beijing is more efficient than JFK. I get dropped from mobile phone calls more readily in New Jersey than in Jakarta. Students in Seoul walk home with backpacks of books at 10pm, not 3pm. Asia is fully aware it needs to compete with America; sometimes I'm not sure that America realizes it has to compete with Asia. There's too much national babble about airport screening and Jersey Shore and not enough about what the country must do to thrive in a world with a rising China and India.

That's why President Barack Obama's State of the Union address was so important. The speech was a call for a refocusing of national priorities, to get policy, money and energy directed at what is needed to compete in the future. Such an effort is long overdue, since China and India won't sit back and wait for Americans to wake up to the new realities of the world economy. We can perhaps quibble with his choice of policy to support his goals, but not the goals themselves. As Obama outlined them:

At stake is whether new jobs and industries take root in this country, or somewhere else.  It's whether the hard work and industry of our people is rewarded.  It's whether we sustain the leadership that has made America not just a place on a map, but the light to the world….We know what it takes to compete for the jobs and industries of our time.  We need to out-innovate, out-educate, and out-build the rest of the world.  We have to make America the best place on Earth to do business…That's how our people will prosper.

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Dow 12,000: A Welcome Milestone

Know who seemed to enjoy the State of the Union address? The stock market. On Wednesday, the Dow inched above 12,000, a level last seen in June 2008. Maybe investors were cheering the President's pep talk on "winning the future." More likely, they dig that chatter about lower corporate tax rates. Even more likely, hard-core data, not the Obama's dialogue, put the market in a good mood: new-home sales jumped 17.5% compared with the prior month.

Considering that the Dow was at around 6,500 in March 2009, the market's rally is quite remarkable. As Mark Hulbert notes in Marketwatch: "There are very few other times in U.S. stock market history during which the Dow has risen so far in so short a time. Since the Great Depression, in fact, there has been only one other occasion when the Dow - in an interval of 23 months - performed better than it has since the March 2009 low. That was during 1986 and 1987, the period leading up to the August 1987 stock market high."

Of course, the market then crashed two months later. While another cataclysmic event seems unlikely, as Jonathan Cheng points out in WSJ.com, "the bull market's reliance on the Fed, however, has some investors questioning the durability of the rally." The 2009 fiscal stimulus helped lift both the economy and market from the bottom, and the recent monetary stimulus - in the form of the Fed's massive Treasury bond purchases - could be temporarily inflating the good vibe about the future, and masking more dour economic fundamentals. "I'm happy, but I'm also worried," Barbara Marcin, portfolio manager of Gabelli Blue Chip Value Fund, told Cheng. "I think we have some very difficult choices to make in the next year or two that's not being reflected in anyone's speeches or rhetoric. I don't see the rally as being very firm because we're taking away a lot of the stimulus."

So toast 12,000, today. But it's far too early to get used to it.