With final results in Iraq's election set to be announced Friday, Prime Minister Nouri Maliki and his secular rival, former Premier Iyad Allawi, are neck in neck in the race to form the next national government.

Whether the results will even stand has been clouded by Maliki's allegations of fraud and a demand for a recount.

Below are the US military's estimates on the final results based on the counting of 95 percent of the votes in the March 7th national election.

The projections put Maliki's State of Law coalition at 90 seats and Allawi's Iraqiya list at 87 seats.

Maliki's Shiite rivals in the Iraqi National Alliance are projected to win 70 seats and the main Kurdish blocs a total of 56 seats. It is a far-from-comfortable majority for forming the next government and would leave Maliki vulnerable to being unseated.

-- Ned Parker

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Plainclothes police officers had been following them for days. The hotel suddenly rescinded its offer to rent them a conference room, and then, when they returned to their suite after dinner, they were told it had been flooded.

"Coincidentally, there were no other rooms available in the whole hotel," Sarah Whitson said wryly.

As the Middle East director of Human Rights Watch, the dark irony was not lost on Whitson. She was supposed to be holding a press conference in Tunis on the repression of political prisoners in Tunisia, but instead she found herself facing the same political tactics and harassment she and her team had so scrupulously documented.

The press conference Wednesday was to announce the release of a 42-page report titled "A Larger Prison: Repression of Former Political Prisoners in Tunisia." But several days ago the government informed Whitson that the conference would not take place, dismissing the report as "biased."

Authorities sent minders to follow the Human Rights Watch team and called Tunisian journalists to warn them against attending the press conference. When Whitson and her colleagues decided go forward with it from the offices of a prominent human rights lawyer, police physically blocked journalists and lawyers from entering and took down the license plate numbers of their cars. In the end, just one diplomat and three activists were able to attend.

A multimillion-dollar international money-laundering scheme allegedly involving a senior Bahraini official and believed to involve several countries has gripped the island emirate and stunned Bahrainis.

In the latest development in the row, Bahrain's king Sheikh Hamad bin Isa, decided Monday night to sack the country's minister of state, Mansoor bin Rajab, who is being investigated for alleged money laundering activities at home and abroad, media reports say.  

The king did not give a reason for Rajab's sudden firing. But he issued a decree saying that the 55-year-old minister was relieved of his duties as of Tuesday.

Rajab confirmed his dismissal in a telephone interview with the pan-Arab news channel Al-Arabiya but he vehemently denied accusations that he had been involved in shady business dealings.

"My dismissal is perhaps aimed at facilitating the ongoing investigation," the Reuters news agency quoted Rajab as telling Al-Arabiya.  "I have the right to defend myself ... and the accusations are completely untrue," he said.

The pictures of Neda Agha-Soltan, whose violent death documented on the streets of Tehran in January became a defining moment and image of the young Iranian opposition, had reached around the world and Israel too. Nearly nine months after her death, another reminder reaches Israel: Caspian Makan.

Caspian Makan claimed to be Neda's beau at the time; they had planned to get engaged, he had told the press then.

Makan arrived in Israel last week. He arrived on an El Al flight and had his Iranian passport stamped at Ben Gurion airport, sure signs he doesn't intend to return to the Iran he fled. He asked to meet with Israeli President Shimon Peres, who was glad to accept, and the two met Monday evening.

"I come to Israel as an ambassador of the Iranian people, a messenger from the camp of peace," the Iranian exile told his Israeli host. "I have no doubt that Neda's spirit and soul feels the sensitivity and warmth I received in this meeting." 

The fight will go on, he pledged.

During two parliamentary sessions on Saturday and Monday, the head of Egypt's Central Auditing Agency warned of growing public anger and blamed Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif's government for a rise in the poverty rate from 20% to 23.4% over the last two years. 

CAA chief Gawdat El Malt was drawn into arguments over his annual report with Finance Minister Youssef Boutros-Ghali and Ahmed Ezz, chairman of the People's Assembly. El Malt, the country's fiscal watchdog, also criticized the government for high inflation, which rose from 5% in 2005 to 16.2% in 2009. Egypt is ranked 82nd among the poorest 135 countries in the world.

"Most citizens are unable to support such staggering price rises," El Malt said, accusing the finance minister of policies that spur citizens to take to the streets in protest. He said the government has "lost the confidence of people because it doesn’t care about poor Egyptians. ... You have to contain the anger of these classes because they constitute the majority of Egyptians."  

 The row over appointing female judges to the State Council, Egypt's highest legal authority, will linger for a while after the council on Monday postponed a final decision on the matter.

The council, which presides over questions regarding the exercise of state power, said a decision won't be handed down until another committee of judges is formed to render an opinion on whether female judges will be admitted or not. It has already been more than a month since 334 out of 380 judges forming the council's general assembly voted against hiring female judges.  

The saga started last summer when nearly 300 women applied and were interviewed for judicial vacancies, prompting 95 judges to ask the assembly's emergency convention to discuss and vote on the eligibility of women to apply for such posts. Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif supports the hiring of female judges. Out of Egypt's 12,000 judges, only 42 are women.  

"The continuing discrimination insults the many Egyptian women who are fully qualified to serve as judges," said Nadia Khalife, a women's rights researcher for Middle East and North Africa at Human Rights Watch.

A statement issued by the Egyptian Center for Women's Rights urged that women should be equally considered for positions in public prosecutions.

-- Amro Hassan in Cairo

Photo: Fatma Lashin, one of female Egyptian lawyers who is barred from a judicial position. Credit: Leila Gorchev / Associated Press

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is locked in a dispute with parliament over his economic plan, which would drastically cut subsidies in an effort to save $40 billion and make Iranians' economic life harder in the face of tough sanctions proposed by the U.S.

The state subsidizes many basic goods, including fuel, but a looming deficit and the threat of more sanctions are putting pressure on the government to save more money.

Ahmedinejad cannot afford to alienate his base, most of whom were won over with costly development projects in rural areas. Therefore, the proposed cuts will target mainly middle-class and wealthy Iranians while  the money saved could be used to pump aid to the poor.

Critics say the new plan is merely a way for Ahmedinejad to cut spending while siphoning more money to his own supporters.

A beautiful girl with a checkered past and the poor delivery boy who loves her – it could be any soap opera on one of hundreds of Arabic channels, but it's not. "Shankaboot" is a digital experiment in storytelling made for the Web, and its success could usher in a new genre of serial drama in the Arab world.

"In the first 10 episodes, we are introducing lovely, interesting characters that young people can identify with," producer Katia Saleh told The Times. "Down the line, [we'll] introduce other topics that would appeal to Arab youth and are not brought up in the mainstream media, something appropriate for the Web."

"Shankaboot," which was shot in Beirut and produced by Saleh's Batoota Films in association with the BBC World Service and with the support of local organizations, bills itself as the first online Arabic drama in the tradition of lonelygirl15 and KateModern, but with a distinctively local flavor.

The end of the year means year-end reviews. But a well-placed source in Tehran tells Babylon & Beyond that Iran's tightly controlled media have been given the order not to mention the nation's biggest story in their recaps of the Persian calendar year 1388: the months of political unrest that followed the disputed June 12 reelections.

Barred from the airwaves, Iran’s opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi took to the Internet in a Persian New Year speech in which he recounted the tumultuous events of the previous year, which catapulted him from a former prime minister to the figurehead of a grassroots political movement.

Mousavi praised the period before last June’s presidential elections and one of “liveliness and joy” that could have marked a turning point for the nation. “More beautiful was the unity among people from different political affiliations,” he said. “This election could have become a big festival for the nation and set in motion a new move in the history of our country.”

Mousavi said he worried about the country’s economy in 1389. “Our economic prospects are grim,” he said. “The projected economic growth rate is very low, implying a decline in investment, runaway joblessness and extensive poverty.”

Moreover, he said, because of foreign policy “adventurism and miscalculations,” Iran now faces multiple threats. “We are in the worst state in our foreign policy and international relations and we are bracing for more sanctions and pressures,” he said.

But much of his speech was an alternative history to the past year to those offered up by government-controlled newspapers. 

A politically charged uproar has erupted on the campus of a leafy university over the academic collaboration between a local Arab professor and two Israeli counterparts. 

In a town hall at the American University of Beirut  earlier this month, nearly 300 in the crowd castigated Sari Hanafi, a scholar and Palestinian activist, for his role as co-editor of the book, "The Power of Inclusive Exclusion: Anatomy of Israeli Rule in the Occupied Palestinian Territories." 

Hanafi worked on the book with two Israeli scholars from Tel Aviv University, Adi Ophir and Michal Givoni, both of whom publicly oppose the Israeli military presence in the West Bank.

Lebanese law forbids contact between its nationals and Israel. The two countries remain technically at war. There's also an ongoing effort to isolate Israel called the Palestinian Academic Campaign for the Academic and Cultural Boycott of Israel, which many AUB students and faculty support.

“This open collaboration between an Israeli academic and an AUB academic is unprecedented in my 50 years of service at this university," said Tarif Khalidi, professor of Arab and Middle Eastern studies at AUB, who addressed the audience at the March 8 meeting. "I say 'open' because God knows what might be happening under the table. This is especially disturbing in a country like Lebanon, which is still in a state of war with Israel."

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Friday named Ahmed Tayeb as the new head of Al Azhar, Sunni Islam's most influential institution, which includes a university and a research center. Tayeb has presided over Al Azhar's university since 2003 and will succeed Sheik Mohamed Sayed Tantawi, who died of a heart attack on March 10.

Tayeb was Egypt's grand mufti for a short period between 2002 and 2003. He is considered to be one of the more enlightened Egyptian Sunni clerics, as he speaks fluent English and French and has a PhD in Islamic philosophy from France's Sorbonne University.

He is known for his moderate and progressive opinions and was previously criticized by some Azhar sheiks and professors for preferring modern suits to the traditional cloaks worn by nearly all Azhar leaders. His views are seen as coinciding with the Mubarak government's efforts at strengthening mainstream Islam against radical voices.  

"Through his work as head of the University, El Tayeb has proved and shown that he is well capable of being Al Azhar's top cleric," Gamal Awad, a professor at Al Azhar's Sharia college told The Times. "The man has full understanding of the religion without any complications, and he made some great efforts in making Al Azhar reach out to Muslims and non-Muslims from all nationalities, and that's exactly what Al Azhar needs."

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband and his French and German counterparts think it's high time for Europe to step up measures against Iran for its alleged jamming of foreign channels such as BBC Persian and Deutsche Welle, which are broadcast by satellite into the Islamic Republic.

"Iran has been regularly jamming the broadcasting by satellite of a number of foreign televisions and radio stations . . . since December 2009, a repetition of its practice in the run-up to the disputed elections earlier that year," Miliband, along with counterparts Bernard Kouchner of France and Guido Westerwelle of Germany wrote in a recent letter to the EU's foreign policy chief, Baroness Catherine Ashton.

"The objective was clearly to prevent the people of Iran from freely exercising their right to information," read the letter. "We cannot remain silent. It seems to us to be essential that the European Union should make known in the strongest possible terms its condemnation of such unacceptable actions."

The three powers suggest that a declaration condemning Iran for its alleged electronic interference be adopted at the next meeting of EU foreign ministers, scheduled to be held in Brussels on Monday. 

Journalists and editors at IslamOnline.net, a website devoted to moderate Islam that has reported on such topics as homosexuality and Valentine's Day, are protesting what they say are attempts by the site's owner in Qatar to add more conservative voices and opinions.

IslamOnline's objectivity and moderate approach to covering Muslim life has earned it a strong reputation among millions of Muslims and others interested in learning about Islam. It attracts more than 100,000 users a day. Tensions, however, have intensified between the editorial staff in Cairo and the site's owner, Al Balagh Islamic Foundation, which reporters said was attempting to interfere with editorial content.

When you're the world's richest man, you may find that you suddenly have more extended family than you ever imagined.

But Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim Helu seemed happy with the warm reception he's received in Lebanon, the ancestral homeland of his parents, even though he didn't seem overly eager to open up his wallet for the old country.

"I came to know the country better," he said when asked at an American University of Beirut forum Wednesday whether he was looking into local investments. "But I have seen very clearly that Lebanon is capable of sustaining growth in most economic areas, and I think Lebanon will grow."

Helu, who recently was named the world's wealthiest man by Forbes magazine, has received the welcome of a conquering hero. 

Last week, Helu met with Prime Minister Saad Hariri, and hundreds of students, faculty and guests packed into the American University of Beirut's School of Business to hear the cellphone-service mogul speak about the importance of knowledge and technology as well as recount his personal story.

Helu owns huge swaths of Mexican industries and became known in the United States in 2008 when he invested $250 million in the New York Times, becoming one of the paper's largest shareholders.

Helu emphasized support for education and job creation but also made clear that his trip to Lebanon was of a personal nature and did not indicate he would be investing in the country.

Israelis are already buying tickets, psyched to see a long list of international artists billed to perform in Israel in coming months.  But as Israelis prepare to rock, political campaigners are on a roll and the summer concerts are already striking a sour note.

Peace activists are picking on the Pixies, slated to play Israel in June.  They've sent the band an open letter saying "as much as some of us are huge fans and would love to hear your show, we won't cross the international picket line." This line isn't always visible, but it's there, they write, asking: "Are you prepared to perform in Tel-Aviv while just under your noses millions of human beings are suffering under a cruel Israeli military regime?" The activists, Israeli citizens from a group that supports the Palestinian call for Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) "from within," urged the Pixies to refuse to perform in Israel "until there is freedom here."

Firecrackers and homemade explosives were heard throughout the Iranian capital on Tuesday night as Iranians took to the streets in celebration of Chaharshanbeh Souri,  an ancient Zoroastrian fire festival held ahead of the Persian New Year, amid a heavy police and security presence.

Opposition supporters had vowed to turn the event this year into a protest against the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. And security forces took no chances.

On the streets of Tehran, armed security forces were out in full force, especially in main squares where protests had taken place earlier. Droves of helmeted "special guards" on motorcycles rumbled past stunned pedestrians. Plainclothes security officials oversaw checkpoints, pulling over cars filled with young people. Police officers on sidewalks could be seen ordering kids to open up their rucksacks.

Although no major clashes were reported between celebrators and security troops, skirmishes between helmeted and uniformed security forces and revelers broke out on Gisha Street, in the capital's central west. 

 The clash of civilizations between the Islamic world and the West isn’t over -- it never began, according to a group of top-notch scholars gathered in Beirut last week.

The scholars from around the world convened at the American University of Beirut to discuss the future of engagement between the Islamic world and the West in a forum sponsored by the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center.

“It’s more appropriate to talk about a clash of ignorances,” said Ali Asani of Harvard University. “People tend to paint each other with one color, with one brush stroke, as simplistic caricatures in utter humiliation.”

Concerns about the health of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who has been hospitalized for more than a week following gallbladder surgery, sent stocks tumbling earlier this week across the country's financial markets. 

Deciphering the tics and illnesses of the 81-year-old president is a national preoccupation. Mubarak has been in power since 1981, and any trip to the hospital raises rumors on the streets and whispers among businessmen and political opponents that the president is ailing.   

After a fall of 2.40% on Sunday, the stock exchange market's EGX 30 index fell 3.84% by close on Monday to register its lowest rate since December. On Tuesday, after state TV showed the first video of a recovering Mubarak, the market slightly rebounded, up 1.77% at closing.

Mubarak had his gallbladder removed at the Heidelberg University Hospital in Germany. Until Tuesday's video, no recent photographs of the president had been published. Despite reports by the hospital spokesmen and doctors assuring that Mubarak is recovering well, speculation persisted as panicky investors worried that the president's condition was more serious than previously thought.

Their crime, Herman Boonstra said, was letting the kids read from a children’s Bible. “Stories of Noah and the ark and Jonas and the whale. Stories which appear in the Koran as well.”

Last week, Boonstra, of the Netherlands, and 15 other foreign nationals at the Village of Hope orphanage in Ain Leuh, a town in the Moroccan Atlas Mountains, were deported by Moroccan authorities for proselytizing. Elsewhere in Morocco, more Christians were deported or put on a list for deportation, including a “significant” number of Americans, the U.S. Embassy reported.

On Friday, Boonstra and others from the Village of Hope issued an appeal to the Moroccan king on their website, asking him "to act with mercy and help us reach a point of compromise and reunite the 33 children with the only parents they know."

Herman and Jellie Boonstra consider the eight Moroccan children they had taken in as their own. At Village of Hope, children were placed in family units, with a man and woman, rather than dormitory-style accommodations. The orphanage was home to 33 children in all, mostly abandoned by women who had become pregnant out of wedlock.

“They were our children. Now suddenly they aren’t anymore,” an emotional Boonstra told Babylon & Beyond by phone from Spain.

Iranian opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi declared the upcoming Persian calendar year one of "patience and endurance" for the opposition movement in an attempt to lift the sagging spirits of his supporters and prepare them for a long-term contest against the Islamic Republic's hard-line rulers.

"The next calendar year is the year of patience and endurance for us," he said, referring to the March 21 start of the Persian new year, or Nowruz.

"Our opponents intend to sow division between us and people and we should not remain idle," he said in a speech delivered late Monday. "We push ahead with our own principles and we should watch out for traps. We insist on our independence without straying into extremism.

"Despite bitter incidents of the past nine months, people are keeping their spirits at a high level." 

Mousavi's latest comments, in an address to the central committee of the nation's main reformist political group, were published by the Persian-language news website Norooz News. His speech was the latest sign that the battered opposition movement ignited by last year's disputed presidential election remains a force within Iran's domestic politics despite imprisonment of its leaders and a violent crackdown against the street protests that have so far been its signature tactic. 

Coming days before the start of the Persian calendar year 1389, it was also a provocative move, aimed at preempting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's  annual Persian New Year speech anointing the upcoming year as one of this or that. One recent year it was a year of "Islamic solidarity and unity." 

Mousavi called on his supporters to counter the rhetoric of the hard-liners and reach out to Iranians of different classes and religiosity.  

He also encouraged Iranians to form and take part in nongovernmental organizations, despite the restrictions imposed on any kind of entity not monitored by authorities. 

"In our country, certain officials wrongly imagine that the government should impose its own organizations on people," he said. "Nongovernment organizations have to be comprised of people and the government should not restrict their activity. If people are not under pressure and NGOs are tolerated, people would not head to the streets. Even on the streets, if people are not denied their rights and do not face violence, they will maintain their calm."

Generally, he voiced optimism about the future of the movement.

"My feeling for the future is that this movement is irreversible," he said. "We will never go back to the position we were in one year ago. I'm very hopeful of the future. We have to transfer patience and hope to people. We have to welcome them to patience and endurance. We will insist on the objectives of the Green Movement until they come to fruition."

Below are some more of his remarks, delivered to the leaders of the Islamic Iran Participation Front: