"Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" and "Land of the Lost" are tied for the most Razzie Award nominations, scoring seven chances each to take gold paint-sprayed statuettes hailing the worst films of 2009.

Also noteworthy: two of this year's Oscar players could also end up as Razzie stars when trophies are doled out one night before the Academy Awards gala. Oscar ceremony co-host Steve Martin is nominated for worst actor in "Pink Panther 2." No other actor has ever been up for a Razzie the same year he or she emceed the Academy Awards, although Martin's co-host on March 7, Alec Baldwin, was nominated for a Razzie in 2003 (worst supporting actor, "Cat in the Hat").

Sandra Bullock is considered an Oscar best actress front-runner for "The Blind Side," but she's also nominated for 2009's worst actress for "All About Steve." If Bullock claims both trophies, she'll be the first star ever to pull off the dual win in the same year. Others have done so in nonacting categories. In 1992, Alan Menken won two Oscars for composing the music in "Aladdin" and a Razzie for a tune in "Newsies." In 1997, Brian Helgeland reaped an Oscar for writing "L.A. Confidential" screenplay and a Razzie for penning "The Postman."

Two stars have been nominated for an Oscar and a Razzie in the same year for the same role, but they lost: James Coco ("Only When I Laugh") and Amy Irving ("Yentl"). Halle Berry famously bagged a Razzie soon after her Oscar, but three years separated her wins for "Catwoman" (2004) and "Monster's Ball" (2001).

John Wilson, Razzie president and founder, tells Gold Derby that "Transformers 2" creator Michael Bay is overdue for Razzie glory after a past worst-picture loss for "Armageddon" (1998) and two defeats for worst director: "Armageddon" and "Pearl Harbor" (2001). "Bay is totally talent-free and untouched by the muse," Wilson says with a sigh.

Wilson says that 2009 was such a banner year for bad movies that the Razzies considered expanding their worst-picture list to 10 nominees like the Oscars' best-picture list, "but then I realized that our membership is only one-tenth of the academy, and it would have no meaning. It would be just like the Golden Globes where a movie can win with only 17 votes."

If the Razzies had expanded its top category, "Twilight: New Moon" would've been nominated for worst picture since it came in sixth place in the voting, so alas, it got snubbed.

" 'Twilight: New Moon' just wasn't bad enough," Wilson adds, noting that its star Taylor Lautner also barely missed out receiving a nomination for worst supporting actor. Nonetheless, he was cited along with "Twilight" costars in the category for worst screen couple as "Kristin Stewart and either Robert Pattinson or Taylor Whatz-His-Fang." Pattinson is nominated for worst supporting actor, and "New Moon" is listed in the race for worst screenplay.

Wilson is surprised at a few omissions from the performance lists. "Gerard Butler had a banner bad year with 'Gamer,' 'The Ugly Truth' and 'Law Abiding Citizen,' and Nicolas Cage was terrible in 'Knowing,'" he says. "In any other year they would've been nominated."

It's the Razzies' 30th anniversary year, so it's time to bestow prizes for worst filmmaking of the decade. They'll be doled out with 2009's trophies at Hollywood's Barnsdall Gallery Theatre at 7:30 p.m. March 6.

WORST PICTURE OF 2009
"All About Steve"
"G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra"
"Land of the Lost"
"Old Dogs""
"Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" (a.k.a. "Trannies, Too")
 
WORST ACTOR OF 2009
All Three Jonas Brothers, "Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience" 
Will Ferrell, "Land of the Lost" 
Steve Martin, "Pink Panther 2"
Eddie Murphy, "Imagine That"
John Travolta, "Old Dogs"

WORST ACTRESS Of 2009
Beyonce, "Obsessed"
Sandra Bullock, "All About Steve"
Myley Cyrus, "Hannah Montana: The Movie"
Megan Fox, "Jennifer’s Body" and "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen"
Sarah Jessica Parker, "Did You Hear About the Morgans?"

Reuters is among the media outlets labeling Kings of Leon's Grammy Award for record of the year for "Use Somebody" as a "surprise," but that's hogwash. Many sources believe that Beyonce pulled off a jaw-dropper in the Grammy battle over best song — or else they think it's shocking that she won there for "Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)" and not in the corresponding category for best record for "Halo." (Often those Grammys get bestowed as a matching pair.)

You know that's nonsense too — if you've been following the expert Grammy dish here at Gold Derby.

Our forum moderator, Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch, and I predicted Kings of Leon would triumph for best record. We also thought it could prevail for song of the year, but I warned that Beyonce's "Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)" had a strong chance to be the spoiler.

As Darrin notes during our discussion, the prize for best record often goes to rock tunes with a lush musical sound like "Use Somebody." Consider recent past champs "Clocks" by Coldplay, "Boulevard of Broken Dreams" by Green Day and U2's "Walk On."

Theoretically, "Use Somebody" should've won best song too — the separate awards for the recording artist and songwriter usually line up about 50% of the time. Furthermore, the victory in the best-song race by a dance tune like "Single Ladies" is a rarity. But as I explained, Beyonce screwed up her Grammy submissions this year. "Single Ladies" is her strongest tune — so hip and catchy that it might've won best record too if Beyonce had entered it in competition. She didn't. She submitted the ho-hum "Halo" in the best-record race instead and placed "Single Ladies" exclusively in the songwriters' contest. Why? You can check out our theorizing in past discussions, but basically put, she blew it.

But maybe it's not a total disaster. You can look at the Grammy outcome this way. At least Beyonce finally has won one of the top three awards. (Record, song and album of the year are considered the holy trinity.) In the past, she had won 10 Grammys, but they were all in the second-tier slots. She had lost  record twice ("Irreplaceable" in 2008, "Crazy in Love" in 2004), song once ("Say My Name" in 2001) and she never before had been nominated for album.

It's just that the award for song doesn't have the same glamor as record. Beyonce is a queen. She's overdue for that crown or the one for album.

RELATED LINKS

Hey, Grammy for best album: You belong with Taylor Swift

Will Taylor Swift or Kings of Leon win the award for best record at the Grammys?

Prediction: Taylor Swift will grab Grammy crown for best album of the year

Grammy battle over best song: Taylor Swift, Beyoncé or Kings of Leon?

Will the Zac Brown Band or Keri Hilson win the Grammy for best new artist?

Grammy experts' smackdown: Will Taylor Swift or Kings of Leon win best record and song?

Photo: Kings of Leon (WireImage)

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

Taylor Swift didn't merely bag the biggest Grammy of all — album of the year for "Fearless" — she became at age 20 the youngest recipient of that prize, eclipsing Alanis Morissette, who was 21 when she triumphed for "Jagged Little Pill" (1996).

Taylor Swift isn't the youngest victor among winners of all top four Grammy categories – album, record, song and new artist of the year. LeAnn Rimes was 14 when she won best new artist in 1997.

Beyonce set a record for most Grammys won by a female in one year (six), but the total is shy of the overall record held by the guys: Michael Jackson (1984) and Carlos Santana (2000), who each nabbed eight.

Beyonce had won five in 2004 and, until now, was tied with five other women for being the biggest champ among females in a single year: Lauryn Hill (1999), Alicia Keys (2002), Norah Jones (2003), Amy Winehouse (2008) and Alison Krauss (2009).

Photo of Taylor Swift: L.A. Times

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

Lots of actors have appeared in films that won the Oscar for best picture and Razzie Award for worst but in different years. Examples: Kevin Costner in "Dances with Wolves" (1990) and "The Postman" (1997) and Sylvester Stallone in "Rocky" (1976) and "Rambo: First Blood, Part 2" (1985). However, only one lead star has managed to pull off that impressive feat in the same  year. To see who it was, click on the "Continue Reading" link underneath the photos below.

Oscar nominations will be unveiled Tuesday morning. Here's what the derby track looks like in my crystal ball.

BEST PICTURE
"Avatar"
"District 9"
"An Education"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Invictus"
"Precious"
"A Serious Man"
"Up"
"Up in the Air"

Vulnerable on the list above are "District 9," "Invictus" and "A Serious Man," which can be bumped by "The Hangover," "The Messenger," "A Single Man" or "Star Trek."

BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"
James Cameron, "Avatar"
Lee Daniels, "Precious"
Jason Reitman, "Up in the Air"
Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds"

These seem to be set in stone.

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"
George Clooney, "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth, "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker"

Jeremy Renner may be bumped by Viggo Mortensen ("The Road").

BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"
Helen Mirren, "The Last Station"
Carey Mulligan, "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious"
Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia"

Emily Blunt ("The Young Victoria") might dethrone one of the above.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger"
Christian McKay, "Me and Orson Welles"
Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station"
Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"

This is one of the toughest categories to predict because there are too many other strong contenders, including Matt Damon ("Invictus"), Alec Baldwin ("It's Complicated"), Anthony Mackie ("The Hurt Locker") and Alfred Molina and Peter Sarsgaard ("An Education"). I put Christian McKay on my list because he gives a flashy portrayal of one of Hollywood's most idolized heroes, Orson Welles, in what is arguably a lead performance. Like Woody Harrelson, I think he even has a longshot chance to beat Christoph Waltz, but McKay's campaign DVD was sent rather late. That could hurt his chance of getting on this list.

Throughout awards season, "Fantastic Mr. Fox" has been as sneaky as, well, a fox. Though many awards gurus believed Pixar's "Up" would soar invincibly above all rivals, "Fantastic Mr. Fox" won top prizes as the year's best animated film from prestigious groups including the New York Film Critics Circle and the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn.

The film, about a devious, chicken-stealing fox posed a curious threat in other contests. When the New York critics named George Clooney best actor, they not only cited his bravura turn in "Up in the Air," but also his voiceover work as the devilish vulpine lead in "Mr. Fox" too. And now, on the eve of Academy Award nominations, some notable Oscarologists believe that it's a serious threat in more than just the race for best animated feature.

But it's the animation contest — expanded to five contenders this year from the usual three — that's heating up, according to some sources such as the New York Times, which warns "a fox snuck into Pixar’s henhouse" during this derby season. Pixar has produced six CGI films since the academy created a separate category for animation in 2001, winning it four times: "Finding Nemo" (2003), "The Incredibles" (2004), "Ratatouille" (2007), "Wall-E" (2008). Its two losses: "Monsters Inc." got squashed by "Shrek" (2001); and, in a huge upset, "Happy Feet" raced past "Cars" (2006). Now can "Mr. Fox" upstage "Up"?

"Up" towered over "Mr. Fox" at the box office, but both films received sky-high critical praise. "Mr. Fox" scored an impressive 83 at Metacritic. Kenneth Turan of the L.A. Times said the film "provides a pleasantly cerebral experience, exhilarating and fizzy, that goes to your head like too much Champagne."

"Mr. Fox" is a fantastic departure for Wes Anderson, who directed and wrote such critically hailed live-action films as "The Royal Tenenbaums" (Oscar nomination, best original screenplay of 2001) and "Rushmore" (1998). "Usually, directors are either in animation or live action," Anderson conceded to Gold Derby, citing Tim Burton as one of the rare exceptions. "There were definitely moments when I was surprised myself that I was doing this."

Anderson's departure into stop-motion animation was tedious. Preparation took one year, and shooting took another. But when we asked Anderson if he'd make another attempt in the future, he replied, "Yes, I'd do it again. It was a nice change. The pace of it allows you a lot of time to polish it and refine it and add to it." However, in the immediate future, he added with a chuckle, "I want to do my next movie with humans."

Preferably, live humans. The biggest challenge of making "Mr. Fox" was adapting the small, beloved children's book by Roald Dahl, who died in 1990.

"The whole process of making the movie was about was trying to imagine what Roald Dahl might have done with this if he were here to make the script," Anderson said. "We had to make it a lot longer and add more characters. ... I'm a fan of his whole body of work, and I spent a lot of time at his house, in his archives, and we were trying to draw from the whole Roald Dahl world and try to expand it by looking to that. We used everything we could from the book, but we tried to be as faithful as we could to him."

Listen to our full chat by clicking on the right-pointing arrow below. It's a phone chat we had a few weeks ago that got held up while I fiddled with trying to fix volume problems. Alas, not very well, as you can hear, but it's still fun to listen in.

Photo: 20th Century Fox

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

"The Hurt Locker" helmer Kathryn Bigelow became the first woman ever to win the top award from the Directors Guild of America. It was a major victory over James Cameron, Bigelow's ex-husband, whose "Avatar" recently became the highest-grossing film in world history.

By contrast, "The Hurt Locker," which cost $11 million to produce, has earned only $12 million in the U.S. ($16 million worldwide).

Recently, Kathryn Bigelow also won the director's prize at the Critics Choice Awards and from the New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. and the National Society of Film Critics.

The other DGA Award nominees were Jason Reitman ("Up in the Air"), Quentin Tarantino ("Inglourious Basterds") and Lee Daniels ("Precious").

Over the last 61 years, only six DGA champs did not repeat on Oscar night:

1968 — Anthony Harvey, "The Lion in Winter" (DGA); Carol Reed, "Oliver!" (Oscar)

1972 — Francis Ford Coppola, "The Godfather" (DGA); Bob Fosse, "Cabaret" (Oscar)

1985 — Steven Spielberg, "The Color Purple" (DGA); Sydney Pollack, "Out of Africa" (Oscar)

1995 — Ron Howard, "Apollo 13" (DGA); Mel Gibson, "Braveheart" (Oscar)

2000 — Ang Lee, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" (DGA); Steven Soderbergh, "Traffic" (Oscar)

2002 — Rob Marshall, "Chicago" (DGA); Roman Polanski, "The Pianist" (Oscar)

Forty-seven of the films that won the DGA prize went on to win best picture at the Academy Awards.

Here's a list of the winners over the previous 25 years. Note that Steven Spielberg ("The Color Purple") and Ron Howard ("Apollo 13") weren't nominated at the Oscars.

* = Victor did not win best director at the Oscars

1984 - Milos Forman, "Amadeus"
1985 - Steven Spielberg, "The Color Purple" *
1986 - Oliver Stone, "Platoon"
1987 - Bernardo Bertolucci, "The Last Emperor"
1988 - Barry Levinson, "Rain Man"

You've seen the videos of me dishing with our forum moderators David "Guru" Schnelwar and Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch over who'll win the top Grammy Award races. And you've read their analysis of the battles over best record, song, album and new artist. Now check out their views of many more races here in our forums.

I'm surprised that the vast majority of pundits we polled (20 out of 29) predict Kathryn Bigelow ("The Hurt Locker") will win the Directors Guild of America award over her ex-hubby James Cameron ("Avatar") on Saturday night. I don't think Team Bigelow is taking into account some crucial details about this guild that strongly suggest Team Cameron will prevail.

"The Hurt Locker" juggernaut sweeping the Hollywood film industry and America's movie critics right now may be largely isolated to those groups. DGA is comprised of more than 13,000 members who are scattered across the U.S. and don't necessarily work in the feature film biz. Most, in fact, work in television, direct commercials, music videos, etc. We must assume that many members probably didn't see "The Hurt Locker" at movie theaters, where it reaped only $12 million. Summit set up lots of industry screenings, yes, but if members missed those, they may have missed the boat entirely. According to guild rules, studios aren't permitted to send DVD screeners to DGA members.

Lots of DGA members who work on music videos and other commercial fare have a strong appreciation for the special-effects wizardry in "Avatar." Another key point: The fanatic national buzz over "Avatar" peaked two weeks ago just as DGA members received their final ballots — right about the time "Avatar" won the Golden Globe for best drama picture, which gave it a hefty awards bump. By the time "The Hurt Locker" pulled off its shockeroo victory at the Producers Guild of America, most DGA ballots were probably already filled out and mailed in.

RELATED LINK

Who will win the DGA award: 'Avatar's' James Cameron or 'The Hurt Locker's' Kathryn Bigelow?

Photo: 20th Century Fox

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

That's the prediction of our forums' moderators David "Guru" Schnelwar and Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch in the Grammy race for best album of the year on Sunday night: Taylor Swift will romp for "Fearless." They wrote about the contest in depth here; now they dish with me via webcam on the race below. Also check out our other video smackdowns over the Grammy races for best record and song.

The other nominees for best album: Beyonce ("I Am … Sasha Fierce"), Black Eyed Peas ("The E.N.D."), Lady Gaga ("The Fame") and the Dave Mathews Band ("Big Whiskey and the GrooGrux King." David, Darrin and I agree that Beyonce poses the biggest threat to Taylor Swift.

RELATED LINKS

Will Taylor Swift or Kings of Leon win the award for best record at the Grammys?

Prediction: Taylor Swift will grab Grammy crown for best album of the year

Grammy battle over best song: Taylor Swift, Beyoncé or Kings of Leon?

Will the Zac Brown Band or Keri Hilson win the Grammy for best new artist?

Grammy experts' smackdown: Will Taylor Swift or Kings of Leon win best record and song?

Photo: Big Machine Records

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

• James Montgomery previews Sunday's Grammys and reports that the betting world is touting Taylor Swift as the favorite to win. "Nick Weinberg, Ladbrokes' chief sports, politics and novelty oddsmaker, says, 'Beyoncé's odds are probably a bit shorter than they should be. Because she's a name, she can release a terrible album, and it would be nominated for an award. But Taylor Swift is the selection. All things being equal, she should win it. Quite an impressive record, which is why we made it our favorite.'" And Bodog.com sportsbook manager Richard Gardner agrees, "This Year's Grammy Awards could be a clean sweep in the three main categories as Taylor Swift is the favorite to win Best Album, Record and Song of the Year." MTV

• Nekesa Mumbi Moody and Mesfin Fekadu offer up their Grammy predictions in eight categories including record of the year. Moody says, "Swift's 'You Belong With Me' has more momentum, but it's likely she'll split the blonde Grammy vote with Lady Gaga and Beyonce, so the Kings of Leon benefit." However, for Fekadu, "If Beyonce's 'Single Ladies' had been nominated here, it would win. But it's nominated in the song of the year category -- a songwriter's award, when it really deserves recognition for its production. That's the only song I could see competing with 'Use Somebody,' which will win here." AP

• Melinda Newman looks at the top race at the Grammys and says, "The slightly off-center selection this year is Dave Matthews Band’s 'Big Whiskey and the Groogrux King.' For that reason, a number of pundits have picked it to win, certainly not because it signifies a high-water mark for the band. This is a race between Beyonce, whose star continues to rise ever higher, and relative newcomers Gaga and Swift. Although we think Beyonce is the most deserving, Swift will get the Nashville vote and a fair amount of mainstream vote, so we’re going with her." HIT FIX

• Among the Grammy Awards categories considered by Todd Martens is song of the year: "It's rare for a dance song to take this category, but 'Single Ladies' was a club hit with an upbeat and feisty message. Its success should steal votes from Maxwell. Watch out, however, for a strong rock contingent push for 'Use Somebody.' This should be a tight race between Beyoncé and Kings of Leon, but with Beyoncé also up for album of the year, she should have the edge." POP & HISS

• Anne Hathaway proved to be a great sport as she was named woman of the year by the Harvard Hasty Pudding theatrical troupe Thursday. As Eric Newcomer writes, "Hathaway, who called the event 'thrilling and wonderful,' may have been the star of the afternoon, but in order to officially collect the Pudding Pot, the starlet had to endure the cutting humor of the event’s hosts and the taunts of the wacky characters that populated the stage." Newcomer notes, "Hathaway joins the ranks of Meryl Streep, Katharine Hepburn, Julia Roberts, and last year’s winner Renee Zellweger." HARVARD CRIMSON

• The academy will be hosting its 21st annual Oscar night party for New York City-based members at the Palace Hotel. As per the announcement, "The evening’s festivities will begin with a reception in the GILT Bar, renowned for its selection of signature cocktails. Following the reception, the invited guests will adjourn to the restaurant for a multi-course Oscar-themed dinner and live viewing of the 82nd Academy Awards telecast. Executive chef Justin Bogle and executive pastry chef David Carmichael will create a special menu for the occasion." AMPAS

• The Oscar-nominated animated and live action shorts will be showcased in a program offered at 100 cinemas in the U.S., Canada and the UK beginning Feb. 19. This marks the fifth year that Magnolia Pictures and Shorts International have teamed up to bring these contenders to a wider audience. As the press release notes, "The series' popularity has charted a spectacular 289% increase in attendance at the domestic box office since its inception in 2005, breaking the record last year for the highest gross ever on a single screen at New York's IFC Center." THE OSCAR SHORTS

• For Greg Ellwood, January may not even be finished but the 2010 Oscar race has already started at Sundance. "At the top of the list is 'The Kids Are All Right,' which if it had been included in the dramatic competition instead of the premieres category probably would have duplicated 'Precious' double wins last year. If Oscar keeps its 10-nominee system it's already in the conversation and Annette Bening, Julianne Moore and Mark Ruffalo are all real acting contenders (although start the debate now on whether Bening or Moore is lead or supporting). Additionally, Lisa Cholodenko has a shot in the directing race and screenplay with collaborator Stuart Blumberg. With Focus having picked up the dramedy, the film will be in good hands for a strong awards campaign. Other potential contenders include Fox Searchlight's 'Cyrus' and Sony Classic's 'Please Give' for screenplay, 'Winter's Bones' Jennifer Lawrence for best actress, both Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams for their amazing performances in 'Blue Valentine,' James Gandolfini in 'Welcome to the Rileys' for best actor, Chris Cooper in 'The Company Men' and Tilda Swinton in 'I Am Love' (which premiered at last year's Venice Film Festival)." HIT FIX

Top photo: "Fearless" by Taylor Swift. Credit: Big Machine Records

Middle photo: "I Am Sasha Fierce" by Beyonce. Credit: Sony Music Entertainment

Bottom photo: Academy Awards. Credit: AMPAS

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

• Sandy Cohen dishes the Oscarcast with first-time producers Bill Mechanic and Adam Shankman."The two men say they're a well-matched team. Mechanic is 'the true film historian and the insane fan,' Shankman says, 'and I'm a little bit more of the P.T. Barnum energy.' So what kind of film-focused circus magic are the two planning? The show will be funnier, shorter and more inclusive than past telecasts, Mechanic says. It'll feature not just nominated films but popular movies from throughout the year. Music and performance will be integrated in a way that's 'really spot-on,' Shankman says, and the newly expanded best-picture category will 'create some consistency' in the traditionally long telecast." AP

• Claudia Puig attended last weekend's dance auditions for the Oscars and chatted with Shankman, who remembered, "'Twenty years ago I was auditioning for Paula Abdul in a room like this. My Oscar audition changed the direction of my career. So this is one long pinch-me moment.' And the night nearly changed the direction of another star's career. 'I remember it like it was right now,' Shankman says. 'I got thrown off stage and literally landed on Jessica Tandy. I almost killed her.' Shankman divulges only tantalizing whiffs of the Oscars show, traditionally shrouded in secrecy. 'There will be more dancers this year than last and probably more dance numbers,' he says. And for the first time, there will be hip-hop dancing. 'It's never been done before.'"USA TODAY

• Ratings for this year's Oscarcast should be boosted by the inclusion of box office champ "Avatar" to the mix. As this item notes, "The cumulative domestic box-office total for the five films nominated in 2008 -- the year of the lowest-rated Oscar broadcast in decades -- was less than the box-office haul of 'Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King' alone, which won best picture in 2004, the last time Oscar viewership passed the 40 million mark. That rating, in turn, pales in comparison to the 57 million people who tuned in to see 'Titanic' take 11 Oscars in 1998. It’s a very simple equation: people are more likely to watch the Oscars if they’ve seen -- and, importantly, liked -- a movie that has a chance of winning. If they have a horse in the race." VANITY FAIR

• Our good pal Tariq Khan has compiled a comprehensive photo gallery detailing his predictions for nominations in the top categories at the Oscars. On the subject of the best picture slate, Tariq writes, "The top six on my list seem all but certain. After that the category is decidedly up in the air. 'Up' charmed children and adults alike with its superb animation and gentle storytelling, so it has a strong chance of being only the second film in the genre (after 'Beauty and the Beast') to be nominated for best picture. The alien invasion-themed 'District 9' has enthusiastic support from several technical branches of the Academy, and looks like a good bet to join 'Avatar' in the top ten despite the general bias against science fiction. The British romantic drama 'An Education' has been highly touted since its release last fall due to its fine acting ensemble. And finally, don’t count out 'The Hangover' for a possible best picture nod. It was the surprise smash of the summer and even the snootiest of critics loved it. At the Golden Globes earlier this year it defeated the more award-friendly 'Julie and Julia' and 'Nine' to claim best musical/comedy honors (something which I predicted, I might add). With the race so wide open, it just might make it in." FOX NEWS

• Susan Hornik says when she "caught up with Taylor Swift at the Saks Fifth Avenue and EIF Unforgettable Evening gala in Beverly Hills last night, we wondered if she was nervous for the Grammy Awards this weekend. 'I get nervous about everything!' she exclaimed. 'I'm so excited about being nominated for eight Grammys. That kind of thought is sorta still unfathomable to me,' she continued, which is an unfathomable thought in itself -- with her track record of winning huge awards all year, another Taylorfest at an awards shows is practically expected at this point. 'Walking into the Grammys knowing I have eight chances to possibly win one. I've never won one Grammy before! So please wish me luck.'" NEW YORK

• Grammy nominee Rihanna won't be bringing baseball player Matt Kemp to Sunday's cermony. " 'I'm going to the Grammys alone, as always!' she said today on 104.3 MY FM's Valentine in the Morning show in Los Angeles. 'Even when I was in a relationship, I always have gone alone.' " The nominee -- with Jay-Z and Kanye West -- for best rap/sung collaboration for "Run This Town" revealed "this was actually the first piece of music we did since the last Grammys. It's exciting that it's nominated. We cannot wait. We hope we bring home the bacon, but if not, it's great that it was nominated." US MAGAZINE

• Scott Feinberg reviews the career of "The Hurt Locker" helmer Kathryn Bigelow, noting, "For the past 30 years, Bigelow has quietly but steadily carved a niche in the film industry: she is a female director who makes 'guy movies' -- particularly of the action, sci-fi, suspense, thriller, and/or war variety, with lots of shootouts and/or explosions -- as well as virtually any male, and for a lot less money. 'The Hurt Locker,' which is as intense as any movie this year and cost only $15 million to make, is the best example of this, but far from the first." Scott then recaps each of her eight feature films. AND THE WINNER IS

• David Germain reports from Sundance on the success of the fest in launching awards caliber films. This year, "Precious" and "An Education" are strong contenders for Oscar nominations and could both be best picture contenders as were Sundance hits "In the Bedroom" and "Little Miss Sunshine." And, as David writes, " 'In the Bedroom' also earned acting nominations for Sissy Spacek, Marisa Tomei and Tom Wilkinson, while 'Little Miss Sunshine' won the supporting-actor Oscar for Alan Arkin and brought a supporting-actress nomination for Abigail Breslin. Other past films that made the leap from Sundance to the Oscars include 'You Can Count on Me' (best-actress nomination for Laura Linney); 'Hustle & Flow' (best-actor nomination for Terrence Howard); 'Half Nelson' (best-actor nomination for Ryan Gosling); and 'Junebug' (supporting-actress nomination for Amy Adams)." AP

Top photo: Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin, hosts of the 82nd Academy Awards. Credit: ABC

Bottom photo: Grammy Award. Credit: NARAS

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

BEST PICTURE CATEGORY: Now that "The Hurt Locker" has pulled off a jaw-dropper at the Producers Guild of America Awards, all doubters must concede that it could seriously win the top Oscar. Over the past 20 years the PGA has predicted the best-picture Oscar 13 times, and this year the parallel between them is especially significant. Not only did PGA expand its list of contenders to 10 just like the Oscars, but the guild used the same preferential ballot used by the academy.

But beware: "The Hurt Locker" doesn't fit the profile of the typical Oscar champ. In fact, it has four strikes against it.

1. "The Hurt Locker" doesn't feature well-known stars like typical victors "The Departed" (Jack Nicholson, Leo DiCaprio), "Million Dollar Baby" (Clint Eastwood, Morgan Freeman, Hilary Swank) or "No Country for Old Men" (Tommy Lee Jones, Josh Brolin, Javier Bardem). Yes, last year's champ, "Slumdog Millionaire," didn't feature known faces either, but it was hugely successful film, earning $377 million worldwide. That leads us to "The Hurt Locker's" next problem.

2. "The Hurt Locker" didn't fare well in theaters. In fact, if it wins the top Oscar, it's going to be the lowest-earning film ever to do so (when all comparative films are adjusted for inflation), having grossed only $12 million in U.S. theaters. How much of that is net revenue? The film cost $11 million to produce. Now add millions more for promotion, advertising and an aggressive Oscar campaign. "The Hurt Locker" could become the first money loser ever to win best picture — at least when measured merely in terms of box-office revenue. Right now "The Hurt Locker" is the top-selling DVD.

3. It's possible that "The Hurt Locker" may have the most nominations but not likely. Having the most bids is usually a key factor. Over the past 20 years, the film with the most bids has won best picture 15 times. If Jeremy Renner gets nommed for lead actor, "The Hurt Locker" is likely to reap eight noms (picture, director, screenplay, editing, cinematography, sound editing, sound mixing). Make that nine if Anthony Mackie makes it into the supporting lineup. "Avatar" will probably score nine nominations; "Inglourious Basterds" nine or 10. But does that really matter? Last year "Slumdog Millionaire" (10 noms) easily squashed "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," which reigned with the second-most bids in Oscar history (13).

4. "The Hurt Locker" is about Iraq. Movies with a Mideast military theme tend to be shunned — not even nominated (remember "In the Valley of Elah"?). But maybe viewers don't think of "The Hurt Locker" as a typical movie about U.S. involvement in Iraq because it doesn't have a political theme. It plays like an action thriller.

BEST ACTOR CATEGORY: By winning both the Golden Globe and Screen Actors' Guild Awards, Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart") seems to have squashed any threat from chief rival George Clooney ("Up in the Air"). Clooney's defeat at SAG was devastating considering that he had an edge in the guild race. Paramount had sent out DVD screeners of "Up in the Air" to the full 100,000 membership. Fox Searchlight didn't do the same rollout for "Crazy Heart."

You've read who our forum moderators Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch and David "Guru" Schnelwar and I believe will win the top four Grammy Awards this Saturday. Now let's go to the videotape. Darrin and I recently got together in Los Angeles to connect with David (who's on the East Coast) via webcam. Check out our first two clashes below. David believes that Taylor Swift will prevail in races for best record and song with "You Belong With Me." Darrin and I say the champ will be "Use Somebody" by Kings of Leon, but we all agree that Beyoncé may be a threat too.

Check out their detailed written analysis of the best-record contest here, plus see what we think about the contests for best album, best song and new artist.

Our first video slugfest below is over the best-record contest. Below that, best song.

RELATED LINKS

Will Taylor Swift or Kings of Leon win the award for best record at the Grammys?

Prediction: Taylor Swift will grab Grammy crown for best album of the year

Grammy battle over best song: Taylor Swift, Beyoncé or Kings of Leon?

Will the Zac Brown Band or Keri Hilson win the Grammy for best new artist?

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

• Brian Steinberg reports, "The price for a 30-second ad in ABC's vaunted telecast of the Academy Awards is running between $1.3 million and $1.5 million, according to media buyers, a range that tracks even with last year's prices even as a newly expanded pool of best-picture nominees might bring broader audiences. Last year's Oscar telecast cost advertisers around $1.4 million for a 30-second ad, down significantly from 2008, when a 30-second spot commanded as much as $1.82 million." ADVERTISING AGE

• One of the big advertisers on last year's Oscarcast was Hyundai, which uses Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart") as voice-over talent. And as Steve Pond writes that could be a problem on this year's show: "According to the Academy’s director of communications, Leslie Unger, sponsors are permitted to use nominees in their ads, but only if at least one hour elapses between the ad and the announcement of the nominee’s category. If the nominee is also a presenter, the same gap must occur between the ad and his or her appearance on the show. The rule also applies to presenters and performers: no commercial spots featuring participating stars (even in voiceover) can run within an hour of that star’s appearance on the Oscar show. The purpose, says Unger, is 'to maintain a clear distinction between ad content and show content.'" THE ODDS

• Our old pal Jack Mathews is one of the top Oscarologists around. He predicts the nominees for nine races -- editing is the extra one to the usual top eight categories -- ending with best picture. As Jack writes, "I don't like the idea of having animated features considered for Best Picture. Not because they can't be the Best Picture, but because actors -- who make up the largest voting bloc of the Academy -- tend not to vote for movies that only employ actors for their voices. So, even if 'Up' makes the expanded ballot (and if it belongs there, I would argue so does 'Fantastic Mr. Fox'), it won't have enough ultimate support to win."  MOVIEFONE

• "Ugly Betty" is signing off after four seasons, says the alphabet net. Star America Ferrera won the Emmy back in 2007 for the first year of this hourlong comedy. She contended again the following year, losing to Tina Fey ("30 Rock"). Supporting player Vanessa Williams has struck out three years in a row at the Emmys, first to Jaime Pressley ("My Name is Earl"), then to Jean Smart ("Samantha Who?"), and most recently to Kristin Chenoweth ("Pushing Daisies"). Of the show's 19 Emmy nods, the only other wins were also in the first season for directing and casting. Ferrera won a Golden Globe in 2007 as well, and the show won best comedy series with the HFPA that year too. Not surprisingly for a series centered on the fashion industry, "Ugly Betty" has won with the Costume Designers Guild for all three seasons to date.

• "Family Guy" creator Seth McFarlane is hosting the WGA's West Coast ceremony Feb. 20 at the Hyatt Regency Plaza. Though the press release touts the show's success with the Emmy Awards including McFarlane's two wins -- voiceover (2000), music and lyrics (2002) -- and a nod this year for comedy series, it is silent on the lack of love from the WGA. While "Family Guy" has been blanked by the WGA, "The Simpsons" has ruled supreme, winning the writing award every year since 2004 and assured of victory again this year as it has all five nominees in the category. WGAW

• Matthew Blank introduces a lovely photo gallery of the 39th annual Theater Hall of Fame ceremony by noting that the event "was held Jan. 25 in the Gershwin Theatre's North Rotunda. Inductees included actors Jim Dale, John McMartin and Lynn Redgrave; producers Roger Berlind and Ted Mann; composers Stephen Schwartz and Andrew Lloyd Webber; and, posthumously, the late playwright/actor Charles Ludlam. Veteran Broadway publicist Shirley Herz was presented with the 2009 Theater Hall of Fame Founders Award for Outstanding Contribution to the Theatre." PLAYBILL

• Pete Hammond recounts the recent WGA screening of "Up in the Air" with writer-director Jason Reitman and co-writer Sheldon Turner in attendance. The pair wrote separate drafts of the script separately but the guild gave them co-credit. As Pete writes, "I jumped right into the controversy by welcoming the audience to the 'WGA Sunday Afternoon Smackdown.' Instead it turned out to be a fascinating look into the script development process and how two guys who never even met until last August could conceivably be sharing an Oscar for a script they wrote completely independently of each other." Reitman admitted it took him a while to warm to sharing credit with Turner, "but then I meet him and he's a great guy and beyond that we were actually drawn to this book for the same reason and we both sat down to write the same screenplay. Even though we never sat in the same room or shared a keyboard we actually did write this movie together in a way, and because of that I'm very proud to share the credit with him." NOTES ON A SEASON

Top photo: Academy Awards. Credit: AMPAS 

Middle photo: "Ugly Betty" promotional poster. Credit: ABC

Bottom photo: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner at the Golden Globes. Credit: Kevin Winter / Getty Images

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

We asked a few dozen experts to predict which one of the five Directors Guild of America nominees will win on  Saturday: James Cameron ("Avatar"), Quentin Tarantino ("Inglourious Basterds"), Lee Daniels ("Precious"), Kathryn Bigelow ("The Hurt Locker") or Jason Reitman ("Up in the Air"). The pundits split into rival camps backing either a man and a woman who, coincidentally, used to be married to each other.

TEAM CAMERON

Lane Brown (Vulture, New York Magazine), Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Scott Feinberg (And the Winner Is...), Elena Howe (The Envelope, L.A. Times), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby, The Envelope), Jill Sergeant (Reuters), Sean Smith (Entertainment Weekly), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today)

TEAM BIGELOW

Thelma Adams (Us Weekly), Brad Brevet (Rope of Silicon), Ted Casablanca (E! Online), Erik Davis (Cinematical),  Greg Ellwood (Hit Fix), Marshall Fine (Star Magazine, Hollywood and Fine), Paul Gaita (The Circuit, The Envelope), Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Peter Howell (Toronto Star), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Kevin Lewin (World Entertainment News Network), Guy Lodge (In Contention), Lou Lumenick (New York Post), Jack Mathews (The Oscarologist, Moviefone), Steve Pond (The Odds, The Wrap), Nathaniel Rogers (Film Experience), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Chuck Walton (Fandango), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere)

Photos: James Cameron (20th Century Fox), Kathryn Bigelow (Summit Entertainment)

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

Now that the reps for Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie have denied rumors of a bust-up and TMZ has reported that Brad — well, at least his beard — is back at home with his brood, there goes the theory that he's snubbing award shows because he's embarrassed about the collapse of his romance.

He didn't show up at the Golden Globes or Critics Choice Awards where "Inglourious Basterds" was nominated for best picture — and won for best supporting actor (Christoph Waltz). Brad didn't show up at the Screen Actors Guild where — surprise — he was among the winners when the "Basterds" cast claimed the ensemble award. "Basterds" also won best supporting actor for Waltz, but Brad wasn't nominated for his own, separate award.

Is it possible that he's privately upset that he hasn't generated solo kudos buzz this derby season? Last year, Brad was generously available to promote "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" when it was up for best picture at the Oscars, Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards and he was nommed for best lead actor at all of those award shows. When "Babel" was a top player one year earlier, Brad made the kudos rounds as he received sporadic nominations such as a bid for best supporting actor at the Golden Globes. So why is he M.I.A. now? Is it just a coincidence that he hasn't scored any solo nominations?

A source within the Weinstein Co., who asked not to be identified because she wasn't speaking officially on behalf of the firm, told Gold Derby, "We're all baffled. When people ask us, 'Where's Brad?' we honestly don't know!"

Gold Derby contacted the office of Brad's rep to ask why he's been missing from award shows, but we did not receive a response to our inquiry.

It's not far-fetched to believe that celebrities might skip award shows where their films are lavished with nominations just because they personally didn't get a bid. Remember when "Titanic" sailed into the Oscar history books without its lead male star on board as its team accepted 11 record-tying awards at the Shrine Auditorium? Rumor had it that Leo DiCaprio was so irked the he wasn't nominated for best actor that he stayed home.

The Directors Guild of America has announced that Brad will attend its awards gala Saturday as a presenter, but a DGA rep says he doesn't know if Angelina Jolie will be with him. Of course, Brad's probably showing up to support his pal Quentin Tarantino. Not being a contender himself at DGA, Brad has no beef with the guild. However, it's possible that he's snubbing the other award shows because they snubbed him.

If true, will he snub the Oscars next? E! Online reports that Angelina Jolie will not attend the Academy Awards because "Jolie will be heading to Venice at the end of February to start production on 'The Tourist,' a remake of a French thriller costarring Johnny Depp in which Jolie plays a vengeful Interpol agent." But what about Brad?

Photo: the Weinstein Co.

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

• Anne Hathaway -- who heard her name announced as a best actress contender last year for "Rachel Getting Married" -- will be joining academy president Tom Sherak at the podium next Tuesday to read off this year's roster of Oscar nominees. As per the announcement, "Sherak and Hathaway will unveil the nominations in 10 of the 24 categories at a 5:30 a.m. news conference at the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills." AMPAS

• Hathaway -- who is to be roasted and toasted with Harvard's Hasty Pudding Award on Feb. 5 -- will have Justin Timberlake as her consort as he receives the man of the year prize. As Tim Nudd writes, "He's won six Grammy Awards, two Emmy Awards and a host of other accolades. Now, Justin Timberlake can add another sweet trophy to the pile. The singer, songwriter, actor and producer was chosen for being 'one of pop culture's most influential entertainers,' the troupe said in a statement." PEOPLE

• Kenneth Jones reports, "a wave of enthusiastic reviews for Broadway's 'A View From the Bridge' prompted close to $500,000 in box office sales on Jan. 25, the day after the revival of Arthur Miller's drama opened at the Cort Theatre. The box office boost and the raves don't necessarily translate to an extension, however. A spokesperson told Playbill.com that the closing date of April 4 is firm. A limited 14-week engagement was planned. The Cort is already pre-booked for an April 14 launch of a revival of August Wilson's 'Fences.'" PLAYBILL

• While "Avatar" is the biggest grossing movie of all time worldwide, the sci-fi flick currently ranks only 26th when it comes to ticket sales in the USA. With ticket prices rising even faster than the rate of inflation -- and the 3-D premium boosting the takings of "Avatar" even further -- the 76,421,400 admissions to date translate to a box office of $554,981,691. Compare that with the 202,044,600 tickets sold to "Gone With the Wind." While that 1939 epic has had several re-releases through the years, the bulk of those sales were back when the country's population was only 131 million; today it stands at 306 million. BOX OFFICE MOJO

• Sasha Stone previews Saturday's DGA awards in a must-read piece. As Sasha writes, "After the PGA’s shocker, I feel unsure of even calling Kathryn Bigelow to win this thing hands down, although if there is a front-runner, she is it. 'Avatar,' 'Up in the Air,' 'The Hurt Locker,' 'Inglourious Basterds' and 'Precious' are five great films. This is a lineup that almost rivals those from the 1970s. There might not have been a lot of films to choose from for Oscar’s Big Ten, but the small amount of films that were available are pretty damned good. These five directors are all different. And they are all either at the top of their game, or close." AWARDS DAILY

• Melena Ryzik reports on the savvy strategy behind the selling of "The Cove" to academy voters. "The documentary about a secretive dolphin slaughter in Japan is on the Oscar shortlist this year; its distributors, Roadside Attractions, bought it three months after Sundance, and are now figuring out how to campaign for it. 'It’s really just about getting people to see the movie,' said Eric d’Arbeloff, a co-president of Roadside Attractions. That may seem like a no-brainer, but for a film like 'The Cove,' it’s not that easy. There’s really no way to sell it as warm and cuddly. 'I have friends who are animal rights people who won’t see it because it’s too painful for them,' Mr. d’Arbeloff said. Referring to a scene which depicts some stuff you wouldn’t want Flipper to go through, he added: 'Our point is: a, that’s about 20 seconds of the movie; b, this is something that is really happening; and c, it’s something that we can actually do something about.'" NEW YORK TIMES

• Oscar champ Rachel Weisz ("The Constant Gardener") picked up another prize Monday as the London theater critics named her best actress for her searing portrayal of Blanche DuBois in "A Streetcar Named Desire." Another Donmar Warehouse star -- Jude Law -- picked up the Shakespeare performance prize for "Hamlet." Recent Tony champ Mark Rylance ("Boeing Boeing") won best actor for his work in best play winner "Jerusalem" by Jez Butterworth and the Tony-winning tuner "Spring Awakening" won best musical at these 21st annual kudos. THE STAGE

• Michael Ausiello has the scoop on Oscar winner Forest Whitaker ("The Last King of Scotland") coming to the small screen on a regular basis. As Michael writes, "Whitaker is nearing a deal to headline CBS' in-the-works spin-off of 'Criminal Minds,' sources confirm to me semi-exclusively. Whitaker would play Cooper, the new team’s fiercely loyal and intensely private leader. A former star profiler in the BAU, Coop’s been off the grid for the last eight years, leaving only a trail of rumors in his wake. 'Minds 2.0' will follow the 'NCIS'/'NCIS: LA' model in that the new team will be introduced in an episode of 'Minds' this spring before being launched into their own show next fall." ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY

• Another of Oscar's golden boys -- F. Murray Abraham ("Amadeus") -- proved his mettle Monday when he tackled a thief backstage at a Gotham theater. Attending a reading of "Much Ado About Nothing" at Classic Stage, "he noticed the man slipping out toward the dressing rooms. Mr. Abraham got up and spoke to the house manager, and the two of them went backstage and found the man hiding under a table in a dressing room. The house manager shouted that a robbery was underway while Mr. Abraham and the man scuffled, with the intruder punching Mr. Abraham. Cast members ran backstage as the intruder fled." NEW YORK TIMES

Top photo: Academy Awards. Credit: AMPAS 

Middle photo: "Avatar" poster. Credit: Fox

Bottom photo: Rachel Weisz winning the Oscar. Credit: AMPAS

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

The Costume Designers Guild announced nominations for their 12th annual kudos in three categories of films: fantasy, contemporary and period. That latter category is where the majority of the eventual Oscar nominees originate. Both last year and in 2008, four of the CDG choices for period film costumes made the final five at the Oscars.

If that trend continues, fantasy nominee "Avatar" could well fill the final slot at the Academy Awards. After all, one of the costume designers on "Avatar" -- Deborah Lynn Scott -- won the Oscar in 1997 for her work on James Cameron's "Titanic." The other two fantasy films in the running with the CDG are “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” (Monique Prudhomme) and "Star Trek" (Michael Kaplan).

Last year "The Duchess" -- a sumptuous period picture -- won both races, marking only the fifth time in 11 years that a CDG champ prevailed at the Oscars. Period pieces tend to win at the Oscars; the last fantasy film to prevail was "Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" in 2003 while the last contemporary movie to win was "The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert" in 1994.

The five period nominees this year are:

“Coco Before Chanel” (Catherine Leterrier)
“Julie & Julia” (Ann Roth)
“Nine” (Colleen Atwood)
“Sherlock Holmes” (Jenny Beavan)
“The Young Victoria” (Sandy Powell)

Atwood is a two-time Oscar champ for her work on Rob Marshall's first two films -- "Chicago" and "Memoirs of a Geisha" -- while Powell has a pair of Oscars for "Shakespeare in Love" and "The Aviator."   Beavan won an Oscar for "A Room With a View" while Roth took home hers for "The English Patient." Only Leterrier has never contended at the Oscars. 

The Grammy categories for best record and song of the year sound similar, but they're not. Best record goes to the recording artist; best song to the tune's songwriter. As our dueling Grammy pundits David "Guru" Schnelwar and Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch point out, the winners often overlap, but they also often do not.

This year I don't think the awards may repeat, so I'm skeptical of the predix below. The key mistake I think our pundits may be making is underestimating the appeal of "Single Ladies," which is only entered here. Strangely, Beyonce didn't submit it for consideration in the race for best record, where she's nominated instead for "Halo," a far weaker entry. When voters choose not to repeat the record/song winners, they often choose a song not nominated in the record race. The only nomination that doesn't line up this year is "Single Ladies," so I think that might prevail, especially considering what a catchy, sexy ditty it is. But that, admittedly, may be a long shot possibility. As DoubleD reminds me via e-mail, "Come on, Tom, you should know better. Songs nominated in the R&B and rap categories NEVER win record/song of the Year. Alicia Keys and Luther Vandross are the only exceptions in the Grammys 52-year history."

Check out what we all think about these Grammy battles: best record, best album and best new artist.

SONG OF THE YEAR
"Poker Face"
"Pretty Wings"
"Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)"
"Use Somebody" — Double D
"You Belong With Me" — Guru

DOUBLED'S COMMENTARY: Record/song winners usually go together, so I'm giving "Use Somebody" the edge here, but Grammy voters may want to honor Swift's songwriting skills.

GURU'S COMMENTARY: Three of the five of these nominations are the same as those of record of the year.  The other two, Maxwell's "Pretty Wings" replaced the Black Eyed Peas' "I Gotta Feeling" and Beyonce's "Singles Ladies (Put a Ring on It)" switched places with "Halo."

The last rock group to win both record of the year and song of the year was U2 in 2000.  Are Kings of Leon as accomplished as U2 to win top honors?

This decade, almost 50% of the time, song and record of the year have gone to the same artist/song. 

RELATED LINKS

Will Taylor Swift or Kings of Leon reign at the Grammys?

Prediction: Taylor Swift will grab Grammy crown for best album of the year

Will the Zac Brown Band or Keri Hilson win the Grammy for best new artist?

Photos: Taylor Swift (Lawrence K. Ho/L.A. Times), Kings of Leon (RCA), Beyonce (Sony)

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.