Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Aug 05 2025 - 12Z Thu Aug 07 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southeast on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains on Tuesday...

...Air Quality Alerts over the Upper Midwest and parts of the Northeast...

...There are Extreme Heat Watches, Extreme Heat Warnings, and Heat
Advisories over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest...

A front lingering from the Southeast westward along the Gulf Coast to the
Southern Plains will remain quasi-stationary through Thursday. The front
and tropical moisture will trigger showers and thunderstorms, accompanied
by heavy rain, over parts of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic through
Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Additionally, on Tuesday, another weak front over parts of the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains will slowly move northeastward into
South-Central Canada before dissipating on Thursday. The system, combined
with a steady source of moisture, will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms include frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and occasional tornadoes. Furthermore, upper-level energy
will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys, as well as the Northeast, on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, a front will begin to move onshore over the Pacific Northwest
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, moving eastward to the Northern High
Plains, roughly southwestward to Northern California by Thursday. The
storm will produce showers and rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Behind the front, weak onshore flow will
aid in creating showers and rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Intermountain Region Wednesday into Thursday.

Moreover, on Wednesday, tropical moisture over the Southeast, along with a
lingering boundary, will produce showers and thunderstorms with moderate
to heavy rain over parts of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic from Wednesday
through Thursday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create localized
areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with
heavy rain.

In addition, the front moving across the Northern Plains on Wednesday will
produce showers and strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley from Wednesday
into Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat of tornadoes.

Furthermore, moderate to heavy rain is expected to be associated with the
thunderstorms over the Upper Midwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes from Wednesday
through Thursday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create localized
areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with
heavy rain.

Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop from the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes southward to the Gulf Coast and parts of
the Northeast on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop
over parts of the Southwest, Southern Rockies, and Central/Southern
Plains. Meanwhile, smoke from wildfires in Canada has prompted Air Quality
Alerts over parts of the Upper Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi Valley, and
the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday.

Furthermore, an intensifying upper-level high over the Southwest will
produce upward-trending temperatures across the Desert Southwest. High
temperatures will reach the mid-110s by Tuesday. The most significant heat
is forecast to focus over central and southern Arizona with widespread
Major to Extreme Heat Risk. A Widespread Major to locally Extreme Heat
Risk will also extend into Southern California. There are Extreme Heat
Watches and Extreme Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California
and the Southwest.

Furthermore, Heat Advisories are in effect for parts of Southern
California, southern New Mexico, and southwestern Texas. Stay informed and
take steps to protect yourself from heat-related illnesses. For
information on staying cool and safe, visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat.
As temperatures rise, limit outdoor activity, stay hydrated, and ensure
access to air-conditioning and other cooling areas.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php