Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 04 2025 - 00Z Wed Aug 06 2025

...Heavy rain and excessive rainfall threat linger across the Southeast
near a stalled frontal boundary...

...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms across the south-central High
Plains through tonight and then across the northern Plains later on
Tuesday...

...Air Quality Alerts from the upper Midwest to the Great Lakes as well as
the interior Northeast...

...Extreme Heat Watches and Warnings across the Desert Southwest and
southern Arizona...

A large dome of cool air will continue to provide cooler than normal
conditions for early August from the Great Plains to much of the eastern
U.S. except New England through the next couple of days.  The southern
boundary of this cool dome will remain nearly stationary through the next
couple of days with heavy rain and a threat of excessive rainfall
especially from Florida Panhandle northward.  As a low pressure wave
develops on the stalled front, the excessive rainfall threat is forecast
to lift further inland across the interior sections of the Southeast
through Tuesday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also lift
gradually north into North Carolina on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to impact the south-central High Plains
through tonight to the east of the stalled front that bends back across
the Great Plains.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms include
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and occasional
tornadoes.  A marginal threat of excessive rainfall is expected up and
down the Great Plains through tonight.  By Monday, the front is forecast
to weaken, leading to a lessening threat of severe weather and heavy
rainfall.  By Tuesday, a low pressure wave associated with an upper trough
from the Pacific is expected to trigger the next round of strong to severe
storms later that day across the northern Plains.

For the western U.S., widely-scattered thunderstorms across the interior
Pacific Northwest are forecast to become more widespread by tonight and
spreading into the northern Rockies and continue into early Tuesday as a
cold front develops and passes through the region.  Meanwhile, Extreme
Heat Watches and Warnings are in effect for high temperatures exceeding
110 degrees across the Desert Southwest and southern Arizona.  Over the
Great Basin to the Four Corners, elevated to critical fire weather danger
is anticipated through the next couple of days with the arrival of the
aforementioned cold front later on Monday.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php