Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 04 2025 - 12Z Wed Aug 06 2025

..There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast
on Monday and Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains on Monday and Northern Plains on Tuesday...

...Air Quality Alerts over the Upper Midwest and parts of the Northeast...

...There are Extreme Heat Watches and Extreme Heat Warnings over parts of
Southeastern California and the Southwest...

A front extending from the Southeast westward along the Gulf Coast to the
Southern Plains will remain quasi-stationary through Wednesday. The front
will trigger showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by heavy rain, over
parts of the Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast through Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas
of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable.

Additionally, upper-level energy and a steady source of moisture will
produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central
High Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms include frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and occasional tornadoes. There is an additional threat of hail two
inches or greater over the region.

Further, upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region, and
Southern Plains from the late afternoon into the late evening on Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Ohio Valley.

On Tuesday, tropical moisture over the Southeast, along with a lingering
boundary, will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over
parts of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic from Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas
being the most vulnerable.

In addition, a strong upper-level impulse will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains.  Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms include frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm
wind gusts, hail, and minimal threat for tornadoes.

Moreover, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes southward to the Gulf Coast and parts of
the Northeast on Tuesday. Meanwhile, smoke from wildfires in Canada has
prompted Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Upper Great Lakes, Upper
Mississippi Valley, and the Northeast on Monday.

Furthermore, an intensifying upper-level high over the Southwest will
produce upward-trending temperatures across the Desert Southwest. High
temperatures are expected to reach the mid-110s by Tuesday. The most
significant heat is forecast to focus over central and southern Arizona
with widespread Major to Extreme Heat Risk. A Widespread Major to locally
Extreme Heat Risk will also extend into southern California. There are
Extreme Heat Watches and Extreme Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern
California and the Southwest. Stay informed and take steps to protect
yourself from heat-related illnesses. For information on staying cool and
safe, visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat. As temperatures rise, limit
outdoor activity, stay hydrated, and ensure access to air-conditioning and
other cooling areas.



Ziegenfelder





Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php