Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 05 2025 - 00Z Thu Aug 07 2025

...A slight risk of excessive rainfall continues across interior Southeast
through Tuesday, with a marginal risk spreading north into the
Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday...

...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected to move across the
northern Plains through Tuesday, reaching into the upper Midwest on
Wednesday...

...Air Quality Alerts from the upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and into
much of the Northeast...

...Extreme Heat Watches and Extreme Heat Warnings across the Desert
Southwest and into Arizona...

A large dome of cool air will continue to provide cooler than normal
conditions for early August from the Great Plains to a good portion of the
eastern U.S. especially the interior Southeast through the next couple of
days.  The southern boundary of this cool dome will remain nearly
stationary with rounds of moderate to heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorms, leading to a slight risk of excessive rainfall from Florida
Panhandle northward into the interior Southeast.  A slow-moving
upper-level trough across the east-central U.S. will tend to lift the rain
slowly northeastward up into the Mid-Atlantic region by Wednesday. 
Scattered heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to raise a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall from the Florida Panhandle up into the
southern Virginia on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms across the interior Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies are becoming more widespread as an upper-level
trough from the Pacific pushes onshore.  A round of strong to severe
thunderstorms is expected to impact the northern and central High Plains
this evening and tonight.  By Tuesday, a low pressure wave is forecast to
develop over the northern High Plains.  This wave will trigger additional
rounds of strong thunderstorms across the northern Plains on Tuesday,
reaching into the upper Midwest on Wednesday near and ahead of a warm
front lifting northeastward.

For the remainder of the western U.S., Extreme Heat Watches and Warnings
remain in effect for high temperatures exceeding 110 degrees across the
Desert Southwest and southern Arizona.  Over the Great Basin to the Four
Corners, elevated to critical fire weather danger is anticipated through
the next couple of days with the arrival of the aforementioned cold front
which is forecast to stall across the Great Basin.  Across the upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes as well as much of the Northeast, smoke from
Canadian wildfires has continued to prompt Air Quality Alerts, with high
temperatures above normal into the mid and upper 80s through the next
couple of days.  For information on staying cool and safe, visit
www.weather.gov/safety/heat.  As temperatures rise, limit outdoor
activity, stay hydrated, and ensure access to air-conditioning and other
cooling areas.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php