Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 PM EDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 07 2025 - 00Z Sat Aug 09 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southeast on Wednesday...

...There is a Enhanced Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Northern High Plains on Thursday and Friday...

...Canadian smoke remains over parts of the Upper Midwest and parts of the
Northeast resulting in Air Quality issues...

...Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain over parts of
Southeastern California and the Southwest...

...Dangerous Fire Weather across the Great Basin into Central Rockies...

A broad frontal zone continues to dominate the Carolinas through southern
Georgia, Alabama and northern Florida; its stagnation over the last few
days has resulted in multiple rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
and today appears to be the end of highest coverage of intense rainfall
for a few days.  A sharp dip in the upper-level jet pattern continues to
slowly fill and with very deep moisture and the frontal zone for forcing,
strong thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon into evening and
the Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(Level 2 of 4) placed across the coastal plains of the Carolinas and
Georgia with a bounding Marginal Risk back to the Southern Appalachians
and into southern Alabama.  As noted, slow weakening of the forcing will
reduce coverage of activity through the end of the work-week with similar
placement of Marginal Risks on Thursday and Friday along Coastal
Carolinas, Georgia and northern Florida.  However, attention will be drawn
off the coast for some cyclogenesis along the front that may result in
eventual tropical development (National Hurricane Center presents a 10%
chance of development in the next 48hrs slowly increasing to 40% through
early next week).

A potent closed upper-level low pressure can be seen just north of
Vancouver Island which is expected to drop to and hug the Canadian/U.S.
border by Thursday into Friday.  This will draw increased moisture and
heat northward across the Northern High Plains; though the Pacific
Northwest today and Northern Rockies by Friday will see well below average
(10-20 degrees) temperatures shift eastward with the upper-low and
associated frontal zone.   However, by Thursday, the elements for severe
weather will be in place across the Northern Plains, with an Enhanced
Slight Risk (Level 3 of 5) for much of North Dakota with a bounding Slight
Risk extending back into eastern Montana and portions of northern South
Dakota.  Large Hail and Damaging Winds will be the primary threats, but
there is some solid potential for a few tornadoes as well.   By Friday, a
similar set of conditions will be present but slightly shifted eastward
centered in the Red River Valley of the Dakotas/Minnesota; with decreasing
coverage expected further south into eastern Nebraska (Marginal Risk,
level 1 of 5) and western Iowa.  South and southeast  of the severe zone,
above average temperatures will risk to about 10-15 degrees above normal
with some 100F temps expected in W KS on Thursday,

In the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Northeast; a persistently stronger high
pressure has been dominating with very unseasonable but pleasant weather
conditions.  However, with the benefit of cooler Canadian flow comes with
the persistent and potentially unhealthy air quality due to the large
ongoing forest fires.  GOES-East imagery shows a large portion of the
Great Lakes and Northeast with copious smoke with most dense across
portion of Lower Michigan, Ontario into New York, Southern New England and
out towards Tropical Storm Dexter (which is well southeast of Nova
Scotia). With the high pressure, some of this smoke is reaching the
surface and reducing air quality, and as such, Air Quality Alerts are in
place across much of northern Michigan, Chicagoland area of northeast
Illinois, southern New York, central Pennsylvania and parts of eastern New
England. 

In the Southwest, the strong upper-level ridge has been slowly breaking
down but today and tomorrow (Thursday) continue to potentially break
record high temperatures across portions of Arizona, Inland Empire of
southern California,  and New Mexico forecast to experience 105-118 degree
high temperature.  The dome will not necessarily break but reduce slightly
by Friday with high but only about 5-10 degrees above average.  North of
the extreme heat, much of the Great Basin of Nevada into Utah, Wyoming and
Western Colorado are under Red Flag Warnings for dangerous fire weather
conditions.  Reduced relative humidity and stronger winds due to the
approaching closed low in the northern stream/Northwest result in Critical
(level 2 of 3) Fire Weather conditions for today and tomorrow as issued by
the Storm Prediction Center.

Stay informed and take steps to protect yourself from heat-related
illnesses. For information on staying cool and safe, visit
www.weather.gov/safety/heat. As temperatures rise, limit outdoor activity,
stay hydrated, and ensure access to air-conditioning and other cooling
areas.

Gallina


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php