Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 06 2025 - 00Z Fri Aug 08 2025

...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible in the Southeast...

...Air Quality Alerts from the Upper Midwest to parts of the Northeast...

...Heat to be at dangerous levels across the Desert Southwest this week...

...Critical fire risk for portions of the Great Basin to the Central
Rockies...


A stalled front draped across the Southeast and central Gulf Coast will
focus thunderstorm activity along it's boundary over the next couple of
days. Some storms may produce flash flooding, which is illustrated by our
days 1 and 2 slight risks (at least 15% chance) of excessive rainfall.
Totals of 1-3 inches with isolated higher amounts are likely by Thursday
evening. Shortwave energy followed by a stronger upper-level low moving
through the northern tier of the country will bring additional showers and
thunderstorms to the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest through
Thursday. Some storms may turn severe, which is why the Storm Prediction
Center issued a slight risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for parts
of the Northern Plains tonight and then again on Thursday.

High pressure aloft is compressing Canadian wildfire smoke close to the
surface over parts of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Air
quality alerts continue to be in place through this evening. Conditions
should improve a bit on Wednesday. In the meantime, it is recommended
that, when possible, you avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially
those with heart disease and respiratory diseases such as asthma. Speaking
of fires, in the West, hot, dry and windy conditions will generate a
threat for fires over the next few days. SPC issued critical fire risk
areas for parts of central-southern Utah, eastern Nevada, northern Arizona
and western Colorado through Wednesday.

Expect hot temperatures this week across the Desert Southwest, with the
peak of the most intense heat by mid-week. High temperatures are expected
to be in the mid-110s and some daily temperature records are likely
through Friday. The most significant heat is forecast to be across central
and southern Arizona where widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk is
expected. Widespread Major to locally Extreme HeatRisk will also extend
into southern California, central and southern New Mexico, and western
Texas throughout the rest of the week.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php